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View Full Version : Is the rather delicately launched D-Theather movies's purpose appetite?


shah8
02-04-05, 04:22 PM
One of the plotlines from the book Jennifer Government is the guerilla marketing tactics of Nike. They have superexpensive shoes that only the upper class kids can afford (and driving lust for keeping up with the Jones), and make them only scantily available and with no constant source of supply. This was done so that when they announced a sequel pair of shoes, Nike can sell them at highly inflated, but reachible prices and also flood the entire regions with the pair of shoes. The first plotline of the books starts of with a couple Nike Marketing guys who recruits a lowly member of Nike to shoot someone for their shoes and increase the trauma, so to speak. Those shoes are literally to DIE for! Limited availability so hurry NOW!

Now, lets compare this with D-Theater and the upcoming optical disk formats. I don't know if it's accidental or not, but the constant and grudging releases of D-Theater tapes is feeding a pretty desperate need to have them, aren't they? I mean, they won't make enough copies for the market at hand, and it's pretty obvious that it would be pretty cheap and profitable to do so. Not only that, no retailer has a regular supply of them. You guys go from one place to the next to the next, but nobody gets consistent supplies of many D-Theater tapes, even though you'd think it's a pretty easy thing to do to make sure deliveries to your retailers are done. Isn't pretty obvious now that many people have had their wives or husbands or better thoughts completely shortcutted by I want Bourne Identity NOW thoughts, and all of this fustration may well be for a purpose? If it was easy to have Bourne Identity, I'm sure alot of you guys may think...eh, it's a good movie, maybe I'll get it later (only to forget about it when the latest bauble picks your pocket). However, now, if the Bourne Identity or Mullholland Dr. shows up, even in quantity, you *don't know* that there is quantity and you allow the buy quick thoughts to rule!

Now, in this spirit of fun curiosity, I began thinking up...okay, what if we WERE dealing with John Nike? What would be his motives? I mean, this is a pretty lousy way to make a profit in and of itself, you see, even if it got panties wet. It makes things unnecessarily hard for everyone involved, for what is essentially a small niche product, right? (Ignore that small niche products often are this irreguler...) Soooo, corporate masterminds at JVC and Fox and Dreamworks and Universal and Artesian (I know, I know, control yourselves, at least until I finish) think ehh, this market is too small, but we don't want to give up on this wave of the future, right? Everyone eventually gonna have to go digital, and that probably means HD in some part of the picture. So...how do we leverage any initial, meaningless position, profit wise, into something that works to a grand scale? Mass Market stuff?

I know I know! Let's do this Disney style! They have these irregular sales of their key movies every once in awhile! Okay, well, this strategy as a whole doesn't work for us, since Disney has kids aiding and abetting their agenda, or do we now? Who else are relatively high impulse buyers? Aaahhhhh....Comic Book Guy. Geeks. Geeks who love their toys and do quite a bit of status buying...The latest nvidia card only for some guys eh? Wait, some of these guys are too smart for their own good, they'll think it through and tell all the birdbrain geeks how to buy this stuff. Okay, we need advocates, cheerleaders, people who will cry out in Best Buy ME WANT ME WANT! We need to make sure nobody has a chance to think of reasons NOT to buy now.

Next problem is what do we send them? HD won't fit on even a dvd9, unless we really make it crappy. We'd have to use tape. Tape is expensive to make, though, compared to pressed dvds. Technologically we'd get outstripped if we commit to a tape format. That's bad, quickly depreciating value in physical assests, while we switch from tape to some kind of optical format. Okay, we want to enter this market, get those brand names out there, but we want to avoid losing too much when we switchover.

Solution: We make D-Theater an excluse item, only a single line of tape decks will be permitted to play D-Theater. What's more important, only a few people can GET movies and other items. The effect will be to create alot of buzz in the major internet chat forums from AVS to Slashdot, from people who are trying to get various tapes that have short runs, even in the very beginning, when one of the best tapes was not produced as much as any other. Rhapsodic praising of this tape, oh, if ONLY I could get that Beauty of Japan tape! Fustrated geeks would be evangelizing through fustration at the object of their dreams not being available. The process goes on with each movie studio producing their own set of limited press runs and have excess supplies go to different places. Okay, I gotta get my Artesian titles from Captain Video, the Fox titles from DVD Empire etc, etc...Now, is that not a BRILLIANT way to increase name recognition of studios? So no matter if they have fairly little profit from the tapes themselves, they've got more profit from the gains in brand awareness!

Long term solution: By increasing FUD, with plenty of extra U, the studios are going to do the big switcheroo. Optical media is going to be much cheaper than expected, and so will the players. They will keep the supply of individual movies a little low, but constant flow in the beginning to attempt retain as much unpredictability as possible. They will also stop making red laser DVDs and force everyone to a new dvd system in which it is much harder to get around all the nice controls they have, for our own good. However, the consumer advocate geeks drives the family media purchases towards the HD version, saying we might not see this title again, gotta get it now, trained to ignoring other factors in purchase by D-Theater...

Profit!!!

robena
02-04-05, 04:56 PM
That's a plausible scenario, but I would not be bothered in the least if it was true.

Studios need to make money, otherwise no more movies.

They need to fuel HD desire for the masses which don't have a clue anyway, otherwise no more HD!

HD is GOOD, miles ahead of SD when it's done properly, and if the studios have to fuel it by using marketing tricks to convince the blind J6Ps that it's a hot item, so be it.

I don't care why people buy HD as long as they do. The more HD will be sold, the more there will be for me, me, me, and that's all that matters.

That, and getting "I, Robot" NOW! :D

Rastor
02-04-05, 05:43 PM
The flaw in your logic is that when companies use this sort of strategy they DO, eventually, make a supply available.

Many D-theatre titles seem to be gone permanently. This points more toward a lack of resources / backing than to a concerted effort to restrict supply.

Gary Murrell
02-04-05, 05:44 PM
Seems to be a pretty good explanation but I must say that I have the ability with many years of internet savvy to be able to locate ANY and EVERY title that has been released except one biggy "Bourne Identity", tapes are out there folks you just have to know how to find them

and i will not give up until i find a copy of "Bourne Identity" :D

-Gary

Ken H
02-06-05, 11:25 AM
There is simply very little demand. End of story.

mikey p
02-06-05, 11:52 AM
"There is simply very little demand. End of story."

Try that one on "Alan G", seems he would like (a D-Theater copy of) I-Robot along with a few others folks, funny.... right? ;-)

Nathan_R
02-06-05, 11:57 AM
Originally posted by Ken H
There is simply very little demand. End of story.

There is simply very little supply.

Am I proposing D-Theater could rival DVD? No.

Granted there's titles like Big Momma's House, but we have to consider the insane prices for Alien and T2 on the back market. In fact, demand is so high for The Bourne Identity that no one will sell his or her copy.

I still say that if the B&M merchants who attempted to sell D-Theater decks had kept even a small inventory of D-Theater titles on the shelf, the format would have picked up a few more recruits.

I'm curious what CaptainVideo and BestPrices would say about demand for D-Theater titles. I'd say forum members alone keep their running inventory pretty low.

But that's just my opinion.

Frank J Manrique
02-06-05, 12:19 PM
Better as well as older titles (why Fox never released The Sound of Music, for example, on D-Theater even though it was announced at the onset of the format is beyond me), a better release schedule. AND lower prices would have been a more successful approach, me thinks.
As it turned out, D-Theater was assured to become the "niche" format that it is (was)...and am one of those who opted to bite the lure (have three D-VHS machines and most of the BETTER titles) spite the uncertainty of the format's survival. Oh, well, live and learn...

-THTS

darinp2
02-06-05, 02:49 PM
Originally posted by Ken H
There is simply very little demand. End of story.
I'm a D-Theater fan, but even compared to HD-DVD and BluRay I think this is true. I think that is one of the main reasons that these companies are focused on those right now. An investment in marketing those will get many multiple times the return in customers just from the simple fact that they are disks.

--Darin

DaveFi
02-06-05, 03:57 PM
I wouldn't be suprised if this is the demand. We're all of it. Right here. This forum. How many is that? 200 people?

mikey p
02-06-05, 07:19 PM
"We're all of it. Right here. This forum. How many is that? 200 people?"

Could be, but not like the place that offered DF420's for $12.99 then blamed us (AVS) for orders of some 1800 units. ;-0

But likewise, I do wonder how many folks actually have D-VHS and buy D-Theater tapes? Needless to say they "seem" to sell like hot cakes.

OTOH; We could be such a small number the MPAA does not worry about us at all? ;-)

Chris Gerhard
02-06-05, 07:57 PM
Originally posted by DaveFi
I wouldn't be suprised if this is the demand. We're all of it. Right here. This forum. How many is that? 200 people?

Now that would be funny. JVC tried to make something of the format but for whatever reason, it didn't do anywhere near as well as I thought it would and I didn't expect much. If Mitsubishi had agreed to be part of the DTheater group and offered compatibility with their excellent VCRs, it might have helped some.

Chris

shah8
02-06-05, 11:09 PM
I rather doubt it's all about low demand.

On a more serious note, I would venture to guess that the companies involved are of two minds, and are trying to half assed compromise between two factions about D-Theater, and that is the general reason there are these tentative releases...

Anyways...I don't think D-Theater is anything like nearly saturating the available market. It really sounds like they are having print runs less than 2 or 3k. I checked DVDEmpire, and the vast majority of their stock is on order. One of the few big picture left in stock is X-Men. I probably should pick that up, just in case...However, the thing is, if D-Theater actually put out enough copies of enough movies, it is pretty damn likely that a smaller version of the laser disc community could have been formed.

The size of the market is irrelevant. The people involved always knew it was going to be small, but to the extent that they are starving demand like that...AVS is only the vocal people. There are probably many lurkers that are doing the same ringamarole. So I'm pretty sure something else other than "it doesn't sell" is the issue.

Allen Fleener
02-07-05, 10:58 AM
I, personally think that the problem is JVC. They are a company that just falls on it's face with all of their products. They may be able to come up with good ideas and can even cobble together a working unit but it is fraught with issues and the time and effort that the consumer must invest to get a measure of problem resolution is for most unacceptable. As a dealer I see them as a wannabe company. They can't deliver good solid product and by the time they get the bugs worked out their competition has a better product and is beating them (JVC) up in the market place.

D-VHS was in a very unique position when it was announced. It was the ONLY true Hi-Def pre-recorded product available. All of the hardware and all of the software was/ is produced by JVC with the only other supplier being HDNET for their own programs. If you can't get any it is because of
them(JVC). To rely on JVC solely is a very bad position to be in as they have continually demonstrated there short sightedness when it comes to delivering the goods both in quality and in quantity.

Once again JVC falls way short of the mark with what is I think finally a pretty good product. In this day and age all consumers expect good reliable products and in the case of software it should also be available as well.

We all knew that D-VHS was/ is a niche product. We just had no idea how poorly JVC was going to be at dealing with us, with their product reliability and titles available.
I for one will think LONG and HARD before I EVER buy another JVC anything.

As a dealer I will NEVER SELL JVC ANYTHING TO ANYONE.

I think that JVC's involvement with BD is good for BD as there are real good company's there that can take the good ideas that JVC comes up with and turn them into good reliable products or working features and everyone wins. That being said, "will I buy a Blu Ray player from JVC?

NOT ON YOUR LIFE!

Sorry for the rant but I hate waste. And JVC wasted alot of folks time, money and most importantly joy as they ignored their uniquely locked in customers.

Ken H
02-11-05, 09:42 PM
Originally posted by shah8
I rather doubt it's all about low demand.

Trust me.

Nathan_R
02-11-05, 10:36 PM
So, low demand of a tape-based format or a low demand of readily available HD content?

If the former, I still say it's the poor marketing on JVC's part.

If the latter, we have bigger problems. Hell, as soon as someone mentions a disc-based HD format around here, even the newbies come out of the woodwork to support one of the two HD-disc formats and spout, "OMG, I'll spend $x,000 to get U-571 in HD!!11!!!!!!!11!!!111!!"

And they don't even realize that specific title *and* a player/recorder is available today for less than $300.

Oh, and then there's that whole component output thing. But we won't get into that....we'll just see what the fates decide and not think of it until it's on the market.

shah8
02-12-05, 12:18 AM
I know enough microeconomics to get me into trouble, Ken H, so I'd need a bit more than trust me. Especially given that statement, you've just pretty much said that HDDVD and BluRay will be a waste of time because they have that same supersmall marketsize.

So tell me two things and I will be convinced. I don't care any more than I'd like to learn anyways.

1) What is too small about it? Why are there consortiums interested in filling this market if it's too small? Doesn't that mean that there is a coming financial disaster for Sony, Toshiba, et al?

2) What about D-Theater prevented it from enjoying the same kind of minor success that LaserDisk had? I mean, I remember back in the day when my mom bought a laserdisk player, when you had to switch out disks and all the other inconveniences. She's not interested in a dvhs deck, primarily because we don't have an HDTV. Wouldn't this reason also hold back the optical formats as well? If not, why didn't D-theater do better?

DaveFi
02-12-05, 08:57 AM
Had movies like Star Wars, Raiders and LOTR been on the format it would have taken off.

bobbyhollywood
02-12-05, 10:42 AM
HDDVD & BluRay will not have the same problem of a supersmall marketsize because EVERYBODY I know had decided tape was a thing of the past and preferred to wait for the HD disc formats they knew were coming. It's that simple. I only bought into the format last year so I could have some high-def content until the floodgates opened with the optical formats. Everyone else thinks I'm nuts.

The compatability questions of the upcoming formats are a separate subject that didn't affect anyone's initial decision to avoid D-VHS when it was introduced.

Laserdisc had a bigger success because at the time it was the equivalent of a high-def format for regular tvs. Newer technogies were not immediately on the horizon the way they are today. Since the laser days we have seen tech changes occur so quickly that people are rightfully cautious about investing in short-term technologies.

Spielberg & Lucas will never allow their big titles to be used as bait to help sell new formats which is why most of them took so long to reach DVD.

My best friend works for one of the major home video divisions and I'm often surprised by the sales numbers I hear for titles we as collectors think are in high demand. I would echo Ken's "trust me. "

If Amazon doesn't even bother to stock the new D-VHS titles, doesn't that tell us something ?

elicross
02-12-05, 11:49 AM
Originally posted by DaveFi
I wouldn't be suprised if this is the demand. We're all of it. Right here. This forum. How many is that? 200 people?

I'd be surprised if it was as low as 200, but I wouldn't be surprised if demand for any particular tape was at or under 2000 nationally. Back when DVD was just beginning to catch on and VHS was still king, a friend who worked for a niche video distributor told me that they needed to sell 3000 tapes just to break even. (I'm sure the economics for D-Theater are different, but I wonder just how different.)

First, you need a customer with an HDTV; then you need one who forked over the cash for a DVHS deck in spite of the fact that it seems like old technology warmed over; then you need a person who can find a place that actually sells these tapes; and finally that person needs to be a fan of the the movie recorded on the tape you're trying to sell. (Especially when many of these programs have been broadcast in HD on channels such as HBO HD.)

Describing it that way, 2000 units seems high...

shah8
02-12-05, 10:53 PM
Thanks for the answers bobby...

It does makes me wonder then, if those hollywood guys are screwy enough to put a lock on analog out. If small things like tape being considered "old fashioned" was a big damper on things, then what would a serious inconvenience do to the optical formats? This will be great to watch, I think, from a business standpoint.

Paul Clancy
02-15-05, 08:10 AM
Don't discount the illusion that "tape is a dinosaur" for failing the format. A 20 something kid I work with couldn't BELIEVE I was buying a hi def vcr...he just couldn't put hi def and tape together in his head , and he considers himself techno savvy. Even after I gave digital examples like dat storage for audio and computer he still didn't get it. Even after I explained hi def masters are all done on hd tape, sports events recorded on hd tape he still didn't get it. Optical transition for home theater really has been complete , more so than I suspected. Tape is a fogey device to them that can't possibly rival disk. The marketers did a very thorough job. By the time dvhs got rolling it was too late for survival even as a niche. Enjoy the pq/sq and low player prices and grab them for archiving hd while you can. While we enjoy our dvhs the "digital disk kids" wait and wait.

jones07
02-15-05, 08:24 AM
Originally posted by Paul Clancy
The marketers did a very thorough job. By the time dvhs got rolling it was too late for survival even as a niche. Enjoy the pq/sq and low player prices and grab them for archiving hd while you can. While we enjoy our dvhs the "digital disk kids" wait and wait.

Well said ;)