AVS Forum Archive 2 - Blu Ray will dominate by 07

Earz

01-26-06, 04:25 PM

[QUOTE=BillP]Earz, you sure are on a personal crusade to ensure that BR wins. A few points: 1) The format war will not be settled on AVS, so you can relax a little. 2) If the overall use of PS3 is anything like it was for PS2 (which had no impact on DVD uptake), few PS3's will actually be used to watch BR movies; the real impact of PS3 on the format war is yet to be determined. 3) As stated above, only time will tell (due to the earlier market entry and lower cost, I would not quite write off HD yet; in fact both formats might well survive).[/QUOTE]

Just the facts Bill...you don't have to like them ;)
When your on the sidelines adding input, its easy to be on the fence or try and remain unbiased.
But those of us about to invest in a player and or game console and pc, have to use whats available as far as info in our decision.
In my case, I plan on buying all three with BD drives for the reasons above instead of taking the cheap priced player with little backing it.

ditcho

01-26-06, 04:31 PM

[QUOTE=Earz]In my case, I plan on buying all three with BD drives for the reasons above instead of taking the cheap priced player with little backing it.[/QUOTE]

And you hope BR prices will go down and you will save if you start another "Blu-Ray Forever" thread? :)

Q of BanditZ

01-26-06, 04:32 PM

[QUOTE=ditcho]And you hope BR prices will go down and you will save if you start another "Blu-Ray Forever" thread? :)[/QUOTE]

Hey! :D

AnthonyP

01-26-06, 06:37 PM

ditcho is on a crusade of his own, to question posts of evil BD supporters with useless one sentence posts

nyg

01-26-06, 08:58 PM

I agree with everything Earz states in his first post except for the last line. I think it'll take a huge miracle for HD DVD to make it past Christmas '06, much less the end of '07.

I can't wait to get a BD player and some movies. It's been three years since I stopped buying DVDs.

hmurchison

01-26-06, 09:10 PM

hehehe nice cheerleading.

Studio support is always malleable. I wouldn't assume anything in this arena. I wouldn't go talking about miracles here you severely overestimate the importance here.

nyg

01-26-06, 09:17 PM

hmurchison,

Give me a Blu!

BLU!!

Give me a Ray!

RAY!!

What's that spell?

BLU-RAY!!!

Couldn't resist! Go Blu-ray Go! :p

Earz

01-26-06, 09:29 PM

[QUOTE=n2blu]I agree with everything Earz states in his first post except for the last line. I think it'll take a huge miracle for HD DVD to make it past Christmas '06, much less the end of '07.

I can't wait to get a BD player and some movies. It's been three years since I stopped buying DVDs.[/QUOTE]

I actually meant much past 06 meaning January 07... ;)

B..L..U...R..A..Y....whats it spell = format winner :D

Earz

01-26-06, 09:34 PM

[QUOTE=hmurchison]hehehe nice cheerleading.

Studio support is always malleable. I wouldn't assume anything in this arena. I wouldn't go talking about miracles here you severely overestimate the importance here.[/QUOTE]

You can't possibly overestimate hd not having support from these eight studios....at least not with a straight face ;)

They like the GB as well as stronger security of BD....and I am sure they prefer to have one format and get on with selling movies .

efranzen

01-26-06, 10:00 PM

[QUOTE=Earz]....and I am sure they prefer to have one format and get on with selling movies .[/QUOTE]

If the criteria is that they want to get on with selling movies then it seems to me that they will eventually adopt both formats. What's better than to get people buying multiple copies of the same movie? How many special editions, directors cuts, extended editions, superbit editions, etc have they come out with on certain titles? I know there are some movies such as Black Hawk Down where I have bought at least 3 versions of the same movie.

I would not be surprised in the least to see several studios switch to supporting both formats within a year, especially if HD-DVD sells alot of players.

nyg

01-26-06, 10:01 PM

He's got the right to his opinion but he shouldn't let that get in the way of ours. I don't see what the problem is with us being excited that the dawn of BD is just around the corner. There are members in the HD DVD forums just as excited that their format is near as well. So be it. Life's more fun when there are new toys to look forward to.

nyg

01-26-06, 10:04 PM

[QUOTE=efranzen]I would not be surprised in the least to see several studios switch to supporting both formats within a year, especially if HD-DVD sells alot of players.[/QUOTE]

HD DVD is not going to sell a lot of players unless they have more studio support soon, not later.

efranzen

01-26-06, 10:14 PM

[QUOTE=n2blu]HD DVD is not going to sell a lot of players unless they have more studio support soon, not later.[/QUOTE]

Possibly. Time will tell. I personally plan on buying one and I would do so even if there was only a single studio supporting it that has movies that I like. I plan on buying a Blu-Ray as well and again I would buy even if only a single studio supported it.

I honestly don't care which format wins. I just want to watch high def movies now in the highest quality possible. I bought a D-VHS for the outstanding movie quality and studios weren't exactly falling over each other to support that format.

I don't at all regret buying into D-VHS. I won't regret buying into HD-DVD if it fails, nor will I regret buying into Blu-Ray if it fails.

My only real hope is that a universal player comes out in the future otherwise I will have to rebuy some movies if they are for a format that fails. That's OK though. Some movies like Alien I have literally bought a dozen copies of between VHS, DVD, and D-VHS. I'll buy it again for whichever optical HD format it comes out for first.

Earz

01-26-06, 10:21 PM

[QUOTE=n2blu]HD DVD is not going to sell a lot of players unless they have more studio support soon, not later.[/QUOTE]

Exactly.....and this is my entire point....movies are the reason we buy hardware to play them on....and buying a player hoping for possible support a year or two away is not smart imo.

If hd , at this time had all of this support and a decent brand player....I would be looking to support that format.....but thats not the case.

BillP

01-27-06, 07:46 AM

[QUOTE=n2blu]HD DVD is not going to sell a lot of players unless they have more studio support soon, not later.[/QUOTE]
And neither format is going to sell a lot of players until the prices drop considerably.

Earz, I do have one question for you. You clearly are not on a budget (based on the players you have bought in the past year and those you plan to buy). So why not buy an HD player as well as BR since there will be movies that are only available in HD (as well as movies only available on BR), and NetFlix will be supporting both formats? Plus, with HD you'll be enjoying those HD movies a few months sooner than any BR movie. Seems to me that hedges your bet a little and optimizes your enjoyment of high res movies from all studios (which is what all this is about).

Clepto

01-27-06, 11:05 AM

[QUOTE=n2blu]HD DVD is not going to sell a lot of players unless they have more studio support soon, not later.[/QUOTE]

Well, the spree of $300 HD DVD players for pre order might change that, assuming that they honor that pre-order price... Even though I'm on the fence, and want to be a BD supported, I seriously considered getting in on a $300 HD DVD player, especially since Netflix will support at launch.

Earz

01-27-06, 11:11 AM

[QUOTE=BillP]And neither format is going to sell a lot of players until the prices drop considerably.

Earz, I do have one question for you. You clearly are not on a budget (based on the players you have bought in the past year and those you plan to buy). So why not buy an HD player as well as BR since there will be movies that are only available in HD (as well as movies only available on BR), and NetFlix will be supporting both formats? Plus, with HD you'll be enjoying those HD movies a few months sooner than any BR movie. Seems to me that hedges your bet a little and optimizes your enjoyment of high res movies from all studios (which is what all this is about).[/QUOTE]

Bill, it has nothing to do with budget, and mine is certainly limited like most everyones.
I do not wish to support another format that won't be around long like dvhs.
I believe theres not enough support for one format, so why would I want to support two?.
I am going with the format that has an absolutely huge advantage in both hardware and software support....plain and simple.
The BDA seems to have its ducks in a row = majority rules and this translates to by far the most studio/hardware support.

BD is only missing Universal, and believe me they will be running to BD soon.

In the mean time, do I want to buy a Toshiba player in order to watch 1 or 2 movies in HD?
The answer is absolutely not.

Dahlsim

01-27-06, 12:08 PM

I believe theres not enough support for one format, so why would I want to support two?.

I think I could make a good 2 player case and I've a got a little break so:

Personally my interest (waiting to see the announcments) is in both the PS3 and the 360 add-in, and here's why.

1) With both players you have access to all HD published movies (and games) regardless of format.

2) As a gamer the cost of adding both of the players are set to be incredibly cheap! Thanks to the format war I will likely have both players for the same or less money than ONE player would have cost me if they were no format war e.g. with no war perhaps. the only early adopter choices would have been Blu Ray from $1000 - $1800 or who knows how much for a PS3. That price looks like it will now buy you both a PS3 Blu Ray AND a 360 HD DVD. Wow.

3) Unlike my laserdisc player, these players may be good upscaling SD DVD players. Even if a format dies the player is useful on any of my high def displays.

4) I already know 360 is a media extender for my HTPC so beefing it up with an add-in potentially makes it very versatile at various spots in the house. I have 2 as well so one add-in could service both.

5) Finally on a less practical note: So if Sony & BR runs away with the race and there is no competition, is that really such a great thing? Then what? Yes, Sony has huge leverage in Entertainment with UMD and BR and studio ownership, hardware production ownership etc. etc. and are well on their way to "owining the living room" but is that really good for me as a consumer?

So if MS is so "evil" dominating the OS/PC world then if Sony becomes the new MS how is that so much better? Are they run by saints or something? lol Nah, I like competition.

Earz

01-27-06, 12:24 PM

[QUOTE=Dahlsim]I think I could make a good 2 player case and I've a got a little break so:

Personally my interest (waiting to see the announcments) is in both the PS3 and the 360 add-in, and here's why.

1) With both players you have access to all HD published movies (and games) regardless of format.

2) As a gamer the cost of adding both of the players are set to be incredibly cheap! Thanks to the format war I will likely have both players for the same or less money than ONE player would have cost me if they were no format war e.g. with no war perhaps. the only early adopter choices would have been Blu Ray from $1000 - $1800 or who knows how much for a PS3. That price looks like it will now buy you both a PS3 Blu Ray AND a 360 HD DVD. Wow.

3) Unlike my laserdisc player, these players may be good upscaling SD DVD players. Even if a format dies the player is useful on any of my high def displays.

4) I already know 360 is a media extender for my HTPC so beefing it up with an add-in potentially makes it very versatile at various spots in the house. I have 2 as well so one add-in could service both.

5) Finally on a less practical note: So if Sony & BR runs away with the race and there is no competition, is that really such a great thing? Then what? Yes, Sony has huge leverage in Entertainment with UMD and BR and studio ownership, hardware production ownership etc. etc. and are well on their way to "owining the living room" but is that really good for me as a consumer?

So if MS is so "evil" dominating the OS/PC world then if Sony becomes the new MS how is that so much better? Are they run by saints or something? lol Nah, I like competition.[/QUOTE]

In general I agree about competition.....I just don't see one format with a handful of movies from one studio as being competition, but more as a way to make this into another sa-cd /dvd-a type situation were theres two sections of hd movies in the little niche section at your favorite retailer as opposed to one format that makes it less confusing for future consumers purchasing decisions.

With one format, this makes the chances of eventual mass market acceptance far greater imo.

Dahlsim

01-27-06, 01:03 PM

In general I agree about competition.....I just don't see one format with a handful of movies from one studio as being competition,

I'd mostly agree there. HD DVD is still 1 or 2 crossover studios away from making it a *real* competition. At this point though I'd say the situation is still fluid since the Studio support is mostly on paper right now.

With one format, this makes the chances of eventual mass market acceptance far greater imo.

Assuming the advantage to you and I would be mainly lower media prices and more content, Mass market acceptance is likely a good ways off in terms of unseating DVD.

More likely either way is that it becomes a strong niche market with nice growth year over year tracking HDTV growth. As long as DVD is around so much cheaper, it'll be hard to beat so I'm not sure we as consumers need much more than a strong, growing niche market to get good content and good competition to get good prices.

jasonblair

01-27-06, 01:06 PM

[QUOTE=Earz]Just the facts Bill...you don't have to like them ;)
[/QUOTE]As an attorney, I can tell you that this is a tactic used often in the legal field. Both sides point to facts... the question is what facts do they point to, and what facts do they negelect to mention?

Notice that Earz didn't mention Warner Brothers, Paramount, or NBC Univeral.
Notice that he didn't mention that HD-DVD is cheaper to manufacture.

Personally, I don't care which format wins.... I'm just saying that people are awfully selective with their "facts" on this forum.

Earz

01-27-06, 01:23 PM

[QUOTE=jasonblair]As an attorney, I can tell you that this is a tactic used often in the legal field. Both sides point to facts... the question is what facts do they point to, and what facts do they negelect to mention?

Notice that Earz didn't mention Warner Brothers, Paramount, or NBC Univeral.
Notice that he didn't mention that HD-DVD is cheaper to manufacture.

Personally, I don't care which format wins.... I'm just saying that people are awfully selective with their "facts" on this forum.[/QUOTE]

What are you trying to say here bd does have support from Paramount and Warner.
The only exclusive studio to hd-dvd is Universal....and you being a Lawyer does not change this one bit :rolleyes:

dialog_gvf

01-27-06, 01:23 PM

[quote=jasonblair]
Notice that Earz didn't mention Warner Brothers, Paramount, or NBC Univeral.
[/quote]
[quote=Earz]
With support for only Blu Ray from all of these studios..
[/quote]
Notice you brought up studios that didn't fit this criteria? ;)

[quote=jasonblair]
Notice that he didn't mention that HD-DVD is cheaper to manufacture.
[/quote]
Fact: DVD is cheaper to make than VHS.
Fact: HD DVD is cheaper to make than BD.

If the fact doesn't affect prices or selection, why should the consumer care?

If you save them 50 cents a disc, they'll rush out 2x the number of $5 - $10 MSRP premium (possibly much larger margin) titles?

[QUOTE=jasonblair]
Personally, I don't care which format wins.... I'm just saying that people are awfully selective with their "facts" on this forum.[/QUOTE]
I agree with this. I especially find it hard to take from certain insiders on both sides. At what point does trying to sell an agenda on here become the same thing as selling a product or service (which are a violation of forum rules)?

Do we demand more of the average poster?

Gary

Earz

01-27-06, 02:04 PM

[QUOTE=Dahlsim]I'd mostly agree there. HD DVD is still 1 or 2 crossover studios away from making it a *real* competition. At this point though I'd say the situation is still fluid since the Studio support is mostly on paper right now.

Assuming the advantage to you and I would be mainly lower media prices and more content, Mass market acceptance is likely a good ways off in terms of unseating DVD.

More likely either way is that it becomes a strong niche market with nice growth year over year tracking HDTV growth. As long as DVD is around so much cheaper, it'll be hard to beat so I'm not sure we as consumers need much more than a strong, growing niche market to get good content and good competition to get good prices.[/QUOTE]

Yep one format would also be niche for quite a while...no question there....but two may have them both remain niche until the next format war.
Don't you think its about time we as consumers try and stop this format war trend?

Everyone seemed happy with one dvd format and it flourished as a result.
With all the confusion of launching two new hd formats when we are not even ready for one imo, I just don't see two formats as being a good thing in the long term.

dialog_gvf

01-27-06, 02:30 PM

[QUOTE=Earz]You got to be kidding me :rolleyes:
[/QUOTE]

You sure you wanted to quote my post?

Gary

Earz

01-27-06, 03:30 PM

[QUOTE=dialog_gvf]You sure you wanted to quote my post?

Gary[/QUOTE]
Actually no Gary...so I deleted my mistake....sorry.

I actually had to get some work done in between posts, and was in too much of a hurry.

Earz

01-27-06, 03:39 PM

[QUOTE=efranzen]If the criteria is that they want to get on with selling movies then it seems to me that they will eventually adopt both formats. What's better than to get people buying multiple copies of the same movie? How many special editions, directors cuts, extended editions, superbit editions, etc have they come out with on certain titles? I know there are some movies such as Black Hawk Down where I have bought at least 3 versions of the same movie.

[/QUOTE]

Your going to want the 50gb full lossless audio version of Blackhawk Down then ...right?
If so, you will need a BD player which kind of helps make this threads whole point. ;)

BillP

01-27-06, 04:01 PM

[QUOTE=Earz]Your going to want the 50gb full lossless audio version of Blackhawk Down then ...right?
If so, you will need a BD player which kind of helps make this threads whole point. ;)[/QUOTE]
This is one part I honestly don't understand. The vast majority of people listen through their TV speakers or an inexpensive surround sound system with crappy speakers, and therefore will not hear any benefits with lossless audio. IMO, a tiny, tiny portion of people will care about this supposed difference between the 2 formats (although I thought I read that HD also offers lossless audio).

Q of BanditZ

01-27-06, 04:04 PM

[QUOTE=BillP]This is one part I honestly don't understand. The vast majority of people listen through their TV speakers or an inexpensive surround sound system with crappy speakers, and therefore will not hear any benefits with lossless audio. IMO, a tiny, tiny portion of people will care about this supposed difference between the 2 formats (although I thought I read that HD also offers lossless audio).[/QUOTE]

Bill, you're killing me with this. ;)

Please stop the average joe arguments. They're out of the picture for several more years, at least. They're irrelevant and don't apply.

Remember which forum you're on and who the vast majority of your audience is here? ;)

THESE people care. Anyone that's going to be in the market for first gen of ANY of this care.

That is not going to change for a long time to come.

JET99

01-27-06, 04:16 PM

Just as 3 major video game formats have co-existed over the past 5 to 10 years, both formats can survive

The audio/video community and their articles on the FORMAT WAR have in part created a hysteria that is totally unwarranted

Consider

1. HD-DVD players will be available for less than 500 dollars out of the gate and probably alot less later in the year

2. Net-Flix will stock all new HD-DVD titles (and BR titles later)

That means to cover HD-DVD technology, this entire "crisis" comes down to buying (at worst) ONE extra player probably for around 300 to 400 dollars by next Christmas, assuming for example someone favors Blu-ray and would buy Blu-ray hardware and software anyways

300 to 400 dollars as the EXTRA expense in a world where many videophiles drop many 1000's and sometimes 10's of thousands setting up home theaters

The media has generated way overdone hysteria about a format war that is really a very minor issue

One extra player solves the entire issue in practical terms

gonzalc3

01-27-06, 04:18 PM

I simply don't see HD DVD kicking in! If it were release months ago, then it would of been
an interesting format war. The only way that it could make it, is if the Blu ray units start
to show off bugs or any other sort of problems, while HD DVD remains flawless.

Grubert

01-27-06, 04:22 PM

Apples and oranges.

A gamer won't probably mind having two consoles. But will movie enthusiasts buy two players only to be able to watch Jaws and Alien?

Dahlsim

01-27-06, 04:22 PM

[QUOTE=Earz]Yep one format would also be niche for quite a while...no question there....but two may have them both remain niche until the next format war.
Don't you think its about time we as consumers try and stop this format war trend?

Everyone seemed happy with one dvd format and it flourished as a result.
With all the confusion of launching two new hd formats when we are not even ready for one imo, I just don't see two formats as being a good thing in the long term.[/QUOTE]

I think at least in the early going 2 format competition maybe a good thing until the "powers that be" in the winning format have been forced to make concessions that genrally end up being in the interest of consumers.

I think we've already seen this before the formats even launch, with lower than normal and lower than expected introductory prices and camps jockeying to differentiate themselves in anyway possible. This has so far been mostly good IMO.

Later on when the standards and prices have all settled down then one format to rule them all is probably the best but even that will be based on the results of the competition weeding it out anyway. Long live the free market.

Clepto

01-27-06, 04:23 PM

[QUOTE=gonzalc3]I simply don't see HD DVD kicking in! If it were release months ago, then it would of been
an interesting format war. The only way that it could make it, is if the Blu ray units start
to show off bugs or any other sort of problems, while HD DVD remains flawless.[/QUOTE]

Well, if initial PQ from launch titles proves to be better on HD DVD than BD, that might be a factor. While the PQ _should_ be about equal, Sony's push for MPEG2 to launch might be a negative factor when compared to Warner's push for VC-1 launch titles on HD DVD...

I would like to see the same codecs on both formats though for a real comparison.

Grubert

01-27-06, 04:26 PM

Dahlsim

01-27-06, 04:28 PM

A gamer won't probably mind having two consoles. But will movie enthusiasts buy two players only to be able to watch Jaws and Alien?

Most likely not, but basically Sony brought the gamers directly into the movie enthusiasts world now with PS3 (and even with UMD) so you have to at least factor in the effect of gamers on the movie industry now.

Earz

01-27-06, 04:38 PM

[QUOTE=Clepto]Well, if initial PQ from launch titles proves to be better on HD DVD than BD, that might be a factor. While the PQ _should_ be about equal, Sony's push for MPEG2 to launch might be a negative factor when compared to Warner's push for VC-1 launch titles on HD DVD...

I would like to see the same codecs on both formats though for a real comparison.[/QUOTE]

Yes we all know one does better at low bit rates and the other at high bit rates...but theres already a thread for that so why post more FUD here?....we shall see soon enough if one looks superior to the other.

With eight missing studios for hd dvd, direct comparisons will be slim. though ;)

calikarim

01-27-06, 04:54 PM

One word, Microsoft, every computer in the world's operating system, will be friendly to HD DVD, ease in accessing media, is a HUGE deal. It will blow any advantage that Playstation 3 will have. Plus the PS 3 is delayed till 2007, ive heard, so it gives HD DVD one year to get a foothold. XBox 360 will have a HD DVD external drive available end of this year before Playstation 3,

HD Dvd will win surprisingly.

JET99

01-27-06, 04:54 PM

I've heard that any PS3 players able to play Blu-ray movies will only be able play a degraded form of hi def - so there won't be any easy way to bypass the huge prices expected on Blu-ray players

If that is true, then HD-DVD could get a significant market share relatively quick

Add to this the high demand for decent HD material, SATS move to HD Lite - and the technology could take off very nicely

Grubert

01-27-06, 04:57 PM

So much FUD it's not even funny.

JET99

01-27-06, 05:04 PM

Some make the argument that because Blu-ray has more capacity than HD-DVD, it reverses Sony's position with Beta of having less capacity and therefore Sony can win this battle

However today capacity is not the big issue, as BOTH technologies have huge capacity, way more than enough to do near anything. With VHS vs Beta, SONY'S Beta initially couldn't fit complete movies which was resolved later, however even though Sony's picture quality was better, VHS won because it was very good and practical instead of BETA'S excellent and less practical

The practical product has an edge and capacity per se today DOES NOT today determine praticality

The practical edge goes to HD-DVD because its players will sell very at relatively low prices and it will be better be able to seemlessly integrate into the existing DVD infrastructure

However as I've stated both technologies can co-exist

JET99

01-27-06, 05:07 PM

Those "eight missing HD-DVD studios" have all locked themselves into ongoing Blu-ray exclusivity?

Earz

01-27-06, 05:12 PM

[QUOTE=calikarim]One word, Microsoft, every computer in the world's operating system, will be friendly to HD DVD, ease in accessing media, is a HUGE deal. It will blow any advantage that Playstation 3 will have. Plus the PS 3 is delayed till 2007, ive heard, so it gives HD DVD one year to get a foothold. XBox 360 will have a HD DVD external drive available end of this year before Playstation 3,

HD Dvd will win surprisingly.[/QUOTE]

Suuuuure it will :rolleyes:

If your off the wall with no basis FUD scenario did play out like you suggest, maybe M/S could actually have a 360 without the heat problems, power supply problems, gouging discs unplayable problems,freezing problems, as well as codes that render my kids 360 useless. :mad:

Anyone here can visit the xbox section for plenty of negative info on rushing a new player to market....but again, what has any of this have to do with the lack of support from eight studios for hd dvd?

Earz

01-27-06, 05:22 PM

[QUOTE=JET99]Some make the argument that because Blu-ray has more capacity than HD-DVD, it reverses Sony's position with Beta of having less capacity and therefore Sony can win this battle

However today capacity is not the big issue, as BOTH technologies have huge capacity, way more than enough to do near anything. With VHS vs Beta, SONY'S Beta initially couldn't fit complete movies which was resolved later, however even though Sony's picture quality was better, VHS won because it was very good and practical instead of BETA'S excellent and less practical

The practical product has an edge and capacity per se today DOES NOT today determine praticality

The practical edge goes to HD-DVD because its players will sell very at relatively low prices and it will be better be able to seemlessly integrate into the existing DVD infrastructure

However as I've stated both technologies can co-exist[/QUOTE]

500.00 players will not help hd dvd when there missing more than half of the content available.

Don't think for a second that these eight movie studios have not done there homework as far as which format makes the most sense, which console will sell more and be used as a hi res player the most ect ect.

They pay huge amounts of money to investigate which format to back....and obviously the figures paint BD a rosier future than hd dvd.

BillP

01-27-06, 05:23 PM

[QUOTE=Q of BanditZ]Bill, you're killing me with this. ;)

Please stop the average joe arguments. They're out of the picture for several more years, at least. They're irrelevant and don't apply.

Remember which forum you're on and who the vast majority of your audience is here? ;)

THESE people care. Anyone that's going to be in the market for first gen of ANY of this care.

That is not going to change for a long time to come.[/QUOTE]
Sorry Q, but we're just going to have to agree to disagree on this one. Yes, the majority of those who will be buying the $1800 Pioneer BR player will care about lossless audio, but that will be a fairly small number of people. I just do not believe the majority of high def player buyers will care (there sure are a lot of people who have already preordered HD-DVD players). Sorry to bring these points up on the BR forum (although there are many BR advocates all over the HD forum, including many who are active in this thread), plus there do seem to be several others here who, like myself, are not an advocate for either format, but rather think the free market system will ultimately decide things. As I have stated before, I believe there is a significant market for both formats, and both may very well survive since each format has certain advantages. Yes I know that the current studio situation is certainly in favor of BR, but that could change quickly since the studios will just follow the money trail and will put out whatever will sell and make money for them.

Clepto

01-27-06, 05:24 PM

[QUOTE=Earz]Yes we all know one does better at low bit rates and the other at high bit rates...but theres already a thread for that so why post more FUD here?....we shall see soon enough if one looks superior to the other.[/QUOTE]

This from the BD FUD Master? It's a valid argument, and based on the initial BD demos encoded with MPEG2, a concern. There's a thread for why BD is so great, so why do you feel the need to post more? /:

Studio exclusivity isn't all it's cracked up to be, and there will be plenty of titles released where direct comparisons of BD vs HD DVD can be performed.

I hope encoding method and # of layers is marked on the disc packaging though, that'd go a long way for ensuring a proper comparison.

Clepto

01-27-06, 05:28 PM

[QUOTE=BillP]Sorry Q, but we're just going to have to agree to disagree on this one. Yes, the majority of those who will be buying the $1800 Pioneer BR player will care about lossless audio, but that will be a fairly small number of people. I just do not believe the majority of high def player buyers will care [/QUOTE]

The bigger question is how many titles will actually offer lossless audio soundtracks, especially on launch. And getting creative by releasing a DTHD 2-channel soundtrack doesn't count as having a 'real' lossless soundtrack imo (;

DTS HD and D_THD are the only 2 lossless audio formats, right? From what I've read, DD+ isn't lossless, just 7.1... I just wanted to make sure of that. Assuming that's correct, I can see DTS HD and D_THD being similar to how DTS existson regular DVD. Rare, but worth a few extra bucks, with DD+ becoming the defacto standard.

efranzen

01-27-06, 05:29 PM

[QUOTE=Earz]Your going to want the 50gb full lossless audio version of Blackhawk Down then ...right?
If so, you will need a BD player which kind of helps make this threads whole point. ;)[/QUOTE]

Well to be completely honest, I don't care one bit about full lossless audio from either of the optical camps. I just spent $1200 on a new receiver less than 2 months ago that will not support 8 channels of lossless audio. It does not have an HDMI input and it only has 5.1 discrete inputs. So I will not be interested in 7.1 lossless for at least 2 years when I'll consider purchasing a new receiver.

MaliciousBraham

01-27-06, 05:34 PM

[QUOTE=JET99]However as I've stated both technologies can co-exist[/QUOTE]

Is this a discussion/format-war about technologies or which part of the marketplace those technologies will succeed???

BluRay will exist, no questions about it, as games for the PS3 will be on BD, no? So no matter if it wins or loses the movie war, it (the technology) will exist in the marketplace for a long time.

HD-DVD has no set-in-stone userbase as a technology, let alone movie industry.

So really its up to HD-DVD to either co-exist or die as a technology, as it is impossible for HD-DVD to "win" the technology battle.

so let it be written, so let it be done.

But this is in reference to the "technology", not the market in which it is used, whatever that market may be.

PerHT

01-27-06, 05:35 PM

The early adopter is not really that price sensitive as average Joe. So I really can't see how the initial price of BD being a large issue. If the price of BD doesn't decrease in say 3-5 years, then the format has an issue. Why? Because then it is not up to the early adopter to decide, but average Joe (Kari & Ola in my native language). I'm quite surprised that BD doesn't respond to the negative PR in certain regions. In my home country it's all about BD's DRM and HD-DVD with it's backward compatibility.

Will either format survive? Only time will tell, but my money is now at BD. And I seriously think that spending $500 on the Toshiba player is a waste of money. But, hey I might be wrong! Spend your money on Toshiba.. I will certainly buy BD if we get the choice back home. (But then, we'll probably have to wait until 2007 to see a high def player at all.. so the format war is to be decided in the US I think..)

YS

Per

Clepto

01-27-06, 05:36 PM

[QUOTE=efranzen]Well to be completely honest, I don't care one bit about full lossless audio from either of the optical camps. I just spent $1200 on a new receiver less than 2 months ago that will not support 8 channels of lossless audio. It does not have an HDMI input and it only has 5.1 discrete inputs. So I will not be interested in 7.1 lossless for at least 2 years when I'll consider purchasing a new receiver.[/QUOTE]

Well, you can get lossless 6 channel then (; Luckily my Receiver is abour 4 years old, so I'll be upgrading in a year, assuming they start making ones that can decode everything.

johnu

01-27-06, 05:39 PM

[QUOTE=JET99]Those "eight missing HD-DVD studios" have all locked themselves into ongoing Blu-ray exclusivity?[/QUOTE]

Correct, locked into Blu-ray tighter than a drum. Unless HD-DVD proves to be successful and the bean counters tell management that they could be making a lot of money also supporting HD-DVD.

Jeremy Snow

01-27-06, 05:42 PM

I just stumbled onto this thread and was quite amused by the whole thing. Content is king. MS choose HD-DVD in part for the interactive capabilities. I personally spend very little time going through all the menus and extras. I believe that most people own DVD's for the movie and not the interactive content. Lower cost discs is irrelevant, I guarantee that the price structure for HD/BR discs will be in the $40 range, providing 100% profit regardless. PS3 inclusion of Blu-ray will help Blu-ray simply due to the fact that people interested in buying a PS3 will also upgrade their tv's at the sam time. I would expect to see a spike in 26"-32" HD-LCDTV at the time of the PS3 launch. If Sony is smart they will include Spiderman 2 on BR with every PS3 sold. As for degraded HD on the PS3 this would also be something that I would think Sony is capable of ala root kit CD's. Sony is a bi-polar company, being a hardware mfg and a media company. It's like being a Republicrat or Democan. Another company to consider is Apple. Although 5% market share is small, I can't help but wonder when they will hit 10-15% and be a true threat to MS. I personally have switched to Mac for business reasons, Final Cut Pro, and am blown away by what I was always missing on the PC. I have built my own media center PC and actually look forward to the day when a Mac-Mini HTMac is viable. This is Apples direction and simply put one of the reasons they moved to Intel, ironically and HD-DVD supporter. Intel chips have built in support for DRM. The only hotter topic than DRM is Global Warming followed closely by the BR/HD-DVD debate. My crystal ball sees a Mac-mini with Blu-ray, 30" lcd and hdmi pass thru for desktop display of DTV/Cable. Despite Media Center maturity it has failed as a consumer product. The only people really using it are enthusiasts like us and we end up modding it by ripping our DVD libraries and so on.

I can't wait to see if the various implementation of BR/HD-DVD have the CUE bug or some other problem, Lip-sync delay, disc rot, and I think that BR discs contribute significantly to Global Warming! As it is January and cold I suggest that BR should be used to heat the planet up a few degrees. If it fails to do so I am sure that the hot debate will do so.

Closing argument... Content is King!

Jeremy

Clepto

01-27-06, 05:43 PM

[QUOTE=johnu]Correct, locked into Blu-ray tighter than a drum. Unless HD-DVD proves to be successful and the bean counters tell management that they could be making a lot of money also supporting HD-DVD.[/QUOTE]

I dunno, a month or so ago, you could have said the same about Warner and HD DVD. Remember, Fox also backed Divx, and look how that turned out. It'll be interesting to see number of HD DVD players sold come say, July... That may have an impact if any of the studios decide to open support to both sides.

calikarim

01-27-06, 05:54 PM

[QUOTE=Earz]Suuuuure it will :rolleyes:

If your off the wall with no basis FUD scenario did play out like you suggest, maybe M/S could actually have a 360 without the heat problems, power supply problems, gouging discs unplayable problems,freezing problems, as well as codes that render my kids 360 useless. :mad:

Anyone here can visit the xbox section for plenty of negative info on rushing a new player to market....but again, what has any of this have to do with the lack of support from eight studios for hd dvd?[/QUOTE]

Studios are like whores, they sell to anyone with the dough baby. All those 8 studios will start selling movies in hd dvd as soon as they see profits, they don't care, they do dvd, superbit, why not two more formats, all they do is send the master to China and wait for shipments and register to go kaching

Earz

01-27-06, 05:58 PM

[QUOTE=Clepto]This from the BD FUD Master? It's a valid argument, and based on the initial BD demos encoded with MPEG2, a concern. There's a thread for why BD is so great, so why do you feel the need to post more? /:

Studio exclusivity isn't all it's cracked up to be, and there will be plenty of titles released where direct comparisons of BD vs HD DVD can be performed.

I hope encoding method and # of layers is marked on the disc packaging though, that'd go a long way for ensuring a proper comparison.[/QUOTE]

Saying encoding will look better without an actual side by side comparison is FUD because we don't have that option and there is a thread already specific to that scenario.
So even if it were true...it would only apply to this discussion if the studios flee because of mpeg2.....which they have not.

Eight movie studios siding with BD is not FUD....it just simply is reality at this point :D

Clepto

01-27-06, 05:59 PM

[QUOTE=Jeremy Snow]
I can't wait to see if the various implementation of BR/HD-DVD have the CUE bug or some other problem, Lip-sync delay, disc rot, and I think that BR discs contribute significantly to Global Warming! As it is January and cold I suggest that BR should be used to heat the planet up a few degrees. If it fails to do so I am sure that the hot debate will do so.
Jeremy[/QUOTE]

Personally, I'm hoping for SPONTANEOUS COMBUSTION! Hell, that might even be introduced by the studios into DVDs to force people to update their collections to HiDef content.... You thought it was an aluminum layer in that DVD, but really, it's time delayed THERMITE! (; *lol*

JET99

01-27-06, 06:04 PM

Think of a flock of geese when they are afraid of some noise, many of these studios will jump into HD-DVD once they figure out the massive pent-up demand for actual HD content for owners of HD televisions and front projectors

The "HD lite" backlash developing with SAT subscribers is not a small group either

Earz

01-27-06, 06:06 PM

[QUOTE=efranzen]Well to be completely honest, I don't care one bit about full lossless audio from either of the optical camps. I just spent $1200 on a new receiver less than 2 months ago that will not support 8 channels of lossless audio. It does not have an HDMI input and it only has 5.1 discrete inputs. So I will not be interested in 7.1 lossless for at least 2 years when I'll consider purchasing a new receiver.[/QUOTE]

Well I would buy this version simply because its hi def...and a good movie regardless...and it can only be played on a BD player.

I don't have 7.1. analog ins either....just 5.1...but I will have either that or one of the new hdmi 1.3 receivers/pre/pros towards the holidays when there released.

kevinca1

01-27-06, 06:16 PM

There are no BLU-RAY or HD-DVD players on any shelves so no one can claim there are. Nor are there any movies.

Earz

01-27-06, 06:55 PM

[QUOTE=JET99]I've heard that any PS3 players able to play Blu-ray movies will only be able play a degraded form of hi def - so there won't be any easy way to bypass the huge prices expected on Blu-ray players

If that is true, then HD-DVD could get a significant market share relatively quick

Add to this the high demand for decent HD material, SATS move to HD Lite - and the technology could take off very nicely[/QUOTE]

More FUD...the specs for the PS3 say 1080P, BD cd, dvd, as well as two hdmi outs.

Q of BanditZ

01-27-06, 09:51 PM

[QUOTE=Earz]More FUD...the specs for the PS3 say 1080P, BD cd, dvd, sa-cd as well as two hdmi outs.[/QUOTE]

Not sure about SACD, but you're right about everything else thus far. Nothing's changed.

Latest known specs:

http://hardware.gamespot.com/x-15015-O-4-4

http://hardware.gamespot.com/Sony-PlayStation-3-15015-S-4-4

Earz

01-27-06, 10:28 PM

[QUOTE=Q of BanditZ]Not sure about SACD, but you're right about everything else thus far. Nothing's changed.

Latest known specs:

http://hardware.gamespot.com/x-15015-O-4-4

http://hardware.gamespot.com/Sony-PlayStation-3-15015-S-4-4[/QUOTE]

Noted :)

JET99

01-28-06, 12:53 AM

There is no way one can sell a PS 3 (with an integrated Blu-ray player) for 500 to 700 dollars less than a stand alone Blu-ray player - and supposedly the story I recall seeing said they were going to degrade the signal on PS 3 version

I am not sure if even Sony knows what they are going to do

Anyone hear this?

Earz

01-28-06, 01:02 AM

johnu

01-28-06, 02:13 AM

[QUOTE=Clepto]I dunno, a month or so ago, you could have said the same about Warner and HD DVD. Remember, Fox also backed Divx, and look how that turned out. It'll be interesting to see number of HD DVD players sold come say, July... That may have an impact if any of the studios decide to open support to both sides.[/QUOTE]

No argument from me, Warner is doing what it thinks will be most profitable for them. And if HD-DVD crashes and burns, nobody is going to continue supporting a product that doesn't earn a profit.

PerHT

01-28-06, 08:05 AM

Earz

01-28-06, 09:22 AM

[QUOTE=PerHT]Why would anybody buy a $1800 SD DVD player, when you can buy a PS2 for $150?

YS

Per[/QUOTE]

More FUD....there are at least 6 or seven companys making BD players, and prices so far are as low as 1k list....with several msrp's not even mentioned yet.

So if the PS3 is 500.00, thats 500.00 less than a BD stand alone player, and we all no the BD players will not street for list like the PS3 will.

I wish I had you guys logic, I could have been using my kids X box for movies all this time and saved a crap load of money by not purchasing my Onkyo sp1000 2k dvd player :rolleyes:

Anyone Know exactly what percentage of studios will not be available on hd dvd?

I had been quoting 50%, but it seems thats too generous....so maybe 75-80%?

dialog_gvf

01-28-06, 09:53 AM

[QUOTE=johnu]Correct, locked into Blu-ray tighter than a drum. Unless HD-DVD proves to be successful and the bean counters tell management that they could be making a lot of money also supporting HD-DVD.[/QUOTE]

Absolutely. How many unit sales do you think will be needed to be able to generate that "lot of money" in disc sales?

DVD player sales just passed 100,000,000 units and disc sales were 1.5 billion last year. Against that, even if HD DVD matched DVD, at 14 months it will be a mere 1% blip.

Gary

JBlacklow

01-28-06, 10:06 AM

[QUOTE=JET99]There is no way one can sell a PS 3 (with an integrated Blu-ray player) for 500 to 700 dollars less than a stand alone Blu-ray player - and supposedly the story I recall seeing said they were going to degrade the signal on PS 3 version

I am not sure if even Sony knows what they are going to do

Anyone hear this?[/QUOTE]Nope. Almost all reports seem to indicate ~$500 price point, and a summer or 06 fall release date, with no region encoding for games. I believe the public specs (from the SCEA press release) indicate Blu-Ray reader the can read PS3 games, BD-ROM/R/RE, DVD/+-RW, and CDs; backwards compatability with PS2 and probably PS1 out of the box; 2 full-resolution 1080p HDMI outputs; SPDIF and analog video out, and SACD support.

Jimbo Moran

01-28-06, 11:23 AM

[QUOTE=calikarim]Studios are like whores, they sell to anyone with the dough baby. All those 8 studios will start selling movies in hd dvd as soon as they see profits, they don't care, they do dvd, superbit, why not two more formats, all they do is send the master to China and wait for shipments and register to go kaching[/QUOTE]

Using your indisputable logic when very few people purchase HD DVD players studio support will dry up.

Earz

01-28-06, 11:26 AM

[QUOTE=Jimbo Moran]Using your indisputable logic when very few people purchase HD DVD players studio support will dry up.[/QUOTE]

Exactly Right.

darinp2

01-28-06, 12:21 PM

Earz,

What player are you planning on buying? I see you crowing about how much content you will have access to and I'm wondering if you are waiting for the PS3 or buying one of the first BluRay players.

--Darin

Earz

01-28-06, 12:26 PM

[QUOTE=darinp2]Earz,

What player are you planning on buying? I see you crowing about how much content you will have access to and I'm wondering if you are waiting for the PS3 or buying one of the first BluRay players.

--Darin[/QUOTE]

Right now its between the Sony es and Pioneer Elite, and I will buy my kid the PS3 as well as a new over due pc upgrade from Dell complete with BD drive.

I will not have my 1080p pj until at least mid summer /fall while waiting for the street pricing to fall on the Optoma h-81....or? pj.

AnthonyP

01-28-06, 03:34 PM

Well, the spree of $300 HD DVD players for pre order might change that, assuming that they honor that pre-order price... Even though I'm on the fence, and want to be a BD supported, I seriously considered getting in on a $300 HD DVD player, especially since Netflix will support at launch.

those pre-orders were cancelled several days ago

AnthonyP

01-28-06, 03:49 PM

More FUD....there are at least 6 or seven companys making BD players, and prices so far are as low as 1k list....with several msrp's not even mentioned yet.

So if the PS3 is 500.00, thats 500.00 less than a BD stand alone player, and we all no the BD players will not street for list like the PS3 will.

Earz: I don't know if you missquoted but that was obviously PerHT 's point. DVD player prices are all over the place from <30$ to>3000$ players. Why cant' there be a cheaper BD player in the form of a PS3 and a more expensive one like the Pionneer

AnthonyP

01-28-06, 03:55 PM

I dunno, a month or so ago, you could have said the same about Warner and HD DVD. Remember, Fox also backed Divx, and look how that turned out. It'll be interesting to see number of HD DVD players sold come say, July... That may have an impact if any of the studios decide to open support to both sides

agree, but can't imagine the numbers to be important enough in July to see anything, my guess July 1st, if lucky, HD-DVD might have broken the 100k mark. That is the issue at hand. For HD-DVD to be interesting to studios I would guess more then a year is needed.

REWJR

01-28-06, 04:44 PM

HD-DVD will dominate by 2007 with MS backing and Vista support added to XBOX 360 and at the starting gate the gun goes off at $499 oh my ....

JBlacklow

01-28-06, 05:30 PM

Yeah, the numbers are really bearing that out. :rolleyes:

Q of BanditZ

01-28-06, 06:41 PM

[QUOTE=REWJR]HD-DVD will dominate by 2007 with MS backing and Vista support added to XBOX 360 and at the starting gate the gun goes off at $499 oh my ....[/QUOTE]

More humor? Because this time I really did LOL...

johnu

01-28-06, 10:19 PM

[QUOTE=dialog_gvf]Absolutely. How many unit sales do you think will be needed to be able to generate that "lot of money" in disc sales?

DVD player sales just passed 100,000,000 units and disc sales were 1.5 billion last year. Against that, even if HD DVD matched DVD, at 14 months it will be a mere 1% blip.

Gary[/QUOTE]

I have no idea, but probably not that many if you look at some of the specialty titles that have been released. It probably depends on how much cleanup they choose to do on the original material. Not DVD type of money for quite a while for either format, or both combined.

Using your numbers, many of those 100 million DVD players have been long buried in the trash heap, and if you are the typical AVS member, you probably have 5 or 10 :) old units in various rooms or the basement. Also, from what I remember, DVD sales have noticeably slowed in the last couple of years as users are completing adding to their library of older titles, while nobody has any hi def titles. So there is a pent up demand for hi def that will add a multiplying effect to their actual numbers. On the other hand, for example, renting from Netflix and others will have a negative effect on total sales and in other threads, a large number are planning to rent at the beginning. Bottom line is that I could be totally wrong, but it is my best guess right now.

Kipp Jones

01-28-06, 10:50 PM

[QUOTE=n2blu]hmurchison,

Give me a Blu!

BLU!!

Give me a Ray!

RAY!!

What's that spell?

BLU-RAY!!!

Couldn't resist! Go Blu-ray Go! :p[/QUOTE]

LOL!!!

johnu

01-31-06, 12:57 AM

[QUOTE=Earz]Sounds like FUD....straight out of Seattle to me..read the specs, and quit listening to stupid rumours.[/QUOTE]

At least get the city right, s/b "straight out of Redmond".

joe81

01-31-06, 01:50 PM

sorry but blu ray and hd dvd will not be successful as some might think. movies on two formats, what a bunch of idiots. besides people like us, do you really think the mainstream is gonna go with it? hell no! they still havent a clue on hi def. people will be buyind standard dvd players for years to come. how can these companies be so stupid? people are already too confused.

PerHT

01-31-06, 03:53 PM

[QUOTE=joe81]sorry but blu ray and hd dvd will not be successful as some might think. movies on two formats, what a bunch of idiots. besides people like us, do you really think the mainstream is gonna go with it? hell no! they still havent a clue on hi def. people will be buyind standard dvd players for years to come. how can these companies be so stupid? people are already too confused.[/QUOTE]

Market segmentation...

Early adopter - Some of us debating here on this forum.
.
.
.
Late adopter - They buy a format only if they got no other choice... They've just bought DVD-player and are amazed by the picture quality.
Death of the format. RIP.

Win the early adopters, and the format might have a chance.. loose them and the format is already dead. Notice, I didn't say anything about the sucess of the format. But nobody expect that they drop DVDs in 2007 even if the format is matured and peaked.

JET99

01-31-06, 04:06 PM

I don't think SONY even has a viable plan at this point

Jimbo Moran

01-31-06, 05:32 PM

[QUOTE=JET99]I don't think SONY even has a viable plan at this point[/QUOTE]

That is a seemingly odd statement. Care to elaborate?

JBlacklow

01-31-06, 05:35 PM

[QUOTE=JET99]I don't think SONY even has a viable plan at this point[/QUOTE]Right, because enormous corporations often make huge decisions with no planning. Remember, it's HD DVD that's constantly missed deadlines, given up exclusive studio support, and set a launch with only two players. I've yet to see any sort of coherent plans for HD DVD in the long-term.

lucius

01-31-06, 05:51 PM

I doubt two formats will survive and be a good thing.

I really think Microsoft is going to be very happy if both formats fail, as long as Bluray doesn't take off they will have succeeded in their goal. If HD-DVD was so important to Microsoft they would have waited a couple months and released the Xbox360 with it. The fact is HD-DVD isn't that important to them whats important to them is as long as Bluray fails Sony and PS3 will be in deeper trouble, making them even weaker for the next round with xbox720 or whatever. It is rather brilliant what Microsoft has done to pretty much hijack HD-DVD from Toshiba and been the biggest PR of HD-DVD, a format I doubt they give a crap about in the long run.

IMO at this point both formats might be screwed for mass market appeal. Too bad where still likely 10 years away from digital distribution being an reasonable option rather than this mess.

Q of BanditZ

01-31-06, 08:27 PM

[QUOTE=JBlacklow]Right, because enormous corporations often make huge decisions with no planning. Remember, it's HD DVD that's constantly missed deadlines, given up exclusive studio support, and set a launch with only two players. I've yet to see any sort of coherent plans for HD DVD in the long-term.[/QUOTE]

Exactly. These are just some of the many pesky facts that we're either all supposed to forget or ignore and sweep under the rug somehow.

HD-DVD has been nothing but botches and missed oppurtunities thus far. Zero coherency!

[QUOTE=lucius]I doubt two formats will survive and be a good thing.

I really think Microsoft is going to be very happy if both formats fail, as long as Bluray doesn't take off they will have succeeded in their goal. If HD-DVD was so important to Microsoft they would have waited a couple months and released the Xbox360 with it. The fact is HD-DVD isn't that important to them whats important to them is as long as Bluray fails Sony and PS3 will be in deeper trouble, making them even weaker for the next round with xbox720 or whatever. It is rather brilliant what Microsoft has done to pretty much hijack HD-DVD from Toshiba and been the biggest PR of HD-DVD, a format I doubt they give a crap about in the long run.

IMO at this point both formats might be screwed for mass market appeal. Too bad where still likely 10 years away from digital distribution being an reasonable option rather than this mess.[/QUOTE]

I really couldn't agree with you more.

The only reason HD-DVD is even still viable is because it has the muscle and seemingly endless, deep pockets of MS behind it.

If MS were even neutral, or abstaining like many other companies, this thing would already be over with and everyone knows it.

BillP

02-01-06, 10:32 AM

[QUOTE=Q of BanditZ] The only reason HD-DVD is even still viable is because it has the muscle and seemingly endless, deep pockets of MS behind it.

If MS were even neutral, or abstaining like many other companies, this thing would already be over with and everyone knows it.[/QUOTE]
Sorry Q, but I respectively disagree. HD is viable because it promises to deliver a superior product than 480i DVD, will be available before BR, and will be less expensive than BR. In the end, if it does blow away DVD in terms of PQ and gets good reviews at launch, it will be around for a while. Whether BR in turn blows away HD depends on whether PQ will be considerably better, whether they can out-market HD, and whether they can get their prices down to be comparable by the time J6P is interested. I maintain there will be a sufficient market for each of these technologies for a while, unless one really fails to deliver (if the Tosh player is only marginally better than DVD, then I agree, it will not survive long).

EDIT: IMO, there is a lot of hype on these threads from both camps. Those of us who are in neither camp actually want to wait and see actual performance (imagine that) before declaring a winner.

BillP

02-01-06, 02:33 PM

As someone else posted in another thread, the war will be over when all the studios back only one format. Until then, it is not over by any means.

AnthonyP

02-01-06, 03:14 PM

I really think Microsoft is going to be very happy if both formats fail,

lucius, I agree (I trhink that is plan A)

PFury67

02-02-06, 07:41 AM

[QUOTE=lucius] If HD-DVD was so important to Microsoft they would have waited a couple months and released the Xbox360 with it. The fact is HD-DVD isn't that important to them whats important to them is as long as Bluray fails Sony and PS3 will be in deeper trouble, making them even weaker for the next round with xbox720 or whatever. It is rather brilliant what Microsoft has done to pretty much hijack HD-DVD from Toshiba and been the biggest PR of HD-DVD, a format I doubt they give a crap about in the long run.[/QUOTE]

I disagree, Microsoft didn't put in a HD-DVD player because of the extra costs involved and it would delay the launch of the 360. As it stands now, the PS3 will most likely perform very closely to the 360, which is bad for the PS3. That means Sony launched their platform over a year after the 360, has no noticable graphical improvements, costs alot more, and has a small library of games compared to the 360 when it finally launches.

If, somehow, Sony launches the PS3 before Christmas 2006, BR stands a very good chance of becoming the new standard in the long run. If they don't roll the PS3 out before Christmas 2006, they are in a world of hurt. Xbox 360 will be cheaper, have lots of game titles, have a HD-DVD package available, and will be highly desirable with all the HDTV sales.

A year delay on BR and a huge price premium doesn't settle well with consumers. And as we have all seen in the past, Sony can introduce a stellar format that just doesn't take off because of timing and pricing (Betamax vs VHS). DVD was already the next big format, BR and HDDVD are just a new feature to the average consumer (which means low costs win, because both will look AMAZING!)

Q of BanditZ

02-02-06, 08:35 AM

lucius

02-03-06, 12:51 AM

[QUOTE=PFury67]I disagree, Microsoft didn't put in a HD-DVD player because of the extra costs involved and it would delay the launch of the 360. As it stands now, the PS3 will most likely perform very closely to the 360, which is bad for the PS3. That means Sony launched their platform over a year after the 360, has no noticable graphical improvements, costs alot more, and has a small library of games compared to the 360 when it finally launches.[/QUOTE]

Well those are some other reasons I don't disagree with, but my point of Microsoft not giving a crap about HD-DVD in the long run and them being happy if both fail still is very true imo. I think the performance thing is blown up just for fanboys, if they do turn out being equal it doesn't matter too much in the end to the mass market of gamers or else Xbox(obviously more powerful in most areas) wouldn't have sold 20 million vs 100 million PS2.

If, somehow, Sony launches the PS3 before Christmas 2006, BR stands a very good chance of becoming the new standard in the long run. If they don't roll the PS3 out before Christmas 2006, they are in a world of hurt. Xbox 360 will be cheaper, have lots of game titles, have a HD-DVD package available, and will be highly desirable with all the HDTV sales.

A year delay on BR and a huge price premium doesn't settle well with consumers. And as we have all seen in the past, Sony can introduce a stellar format that just doesn't take off because of timing and pricing (Betamax vs VHS). DVD was already the next big format, BR and HDDVD are just a new feature to the average consumer (which means low costs win, because both will look AMAZING!)

No chance PS3 launches after 2006 except maybe Europe. I can't really compare games since we have no idea what will come out, but I do think you underestimate a bit how many gamers will still want a PS3 no matter what Microsoft does. Even the PS2 which I thought lacked a superior lineup than the Dreamcast launched with great success. Yeah I think BR has a better chance at long term success than HD-DVD but who knows both may never take off like DVD, Sony definitely has alot riding on it we will see.

JET99

02-03-06, 01:45 AM

PerHT

02-03-06, 04:30 AM

[QUOTE=JET99]Toshiba's plan is to keep it simple and cheap, often a winning strategy[/QUOTE]

So that's why they constantly miss their own deadlines ;)

Toshiba is only aiming at the "low-end" segment.. The low end segment isn't excatly the early adopter in High Def markets.. They've spent an excess of $5000 for a 1080 set, and they want the best PQ as possible. Early adopters often look beyond $$$.

Per

PFury67

02-03-06, 07:05 AM

[QUOTE=PerHT]Toshiba is only aiming at the "low-end" segment.. The low end segment isn't excatly the early adopter in High Def markets.. They've spent an excess of $5000 for a 1080 set, and they want the best PQ as possible. Early adopters often look beyond $$$.[/QUOTE]

Except for one tiny little nagging detail, HD-DVD will be available before BluRay by at least a few months, at least

bferr1

02-03-06, 07:44 AM

[QUOTE=PerHT]So that's why they constantly miss their own deadlines ;) [/QUOTE]

I just assumed they missed deadlines because AACS hadn't been finalized at the time.

JBlacklow

02-03-06, 08:14 AM

[QUOTE=PFury67]Except for one tiny little nagging detail, HD-DVD will be available before BluRay by at least a few months, at least[/QUOTE]There's plenty of tech that came out earlier than it's competitor(s) and still lost. Sony's own Betamax was out for a year before VHS, and the factors often blamed for its failure (storage and studio support) are both on Blu-Ray's side.
[QUOTE=bferr1]I just assumed they missed deadlines because AACS hadn't been finalized at the time.[/QUOTE] That's what it looks like. If that was the case, maybe they shouldn't have made all those promises and released lists of movies in the first place.

Issac Hunt

02-03-06, 08:26 AM

The unfinished nature of the NEC drive which will be used in the early Toshiba players would suggest otherwise.

PerHT

02-03-06, 08:26 AM

If it all boils down to the AACS being uncomplete, then we should expect that both BD & HD-DVD will launch ASAP after the completion of AACS. How can HD-DVD have an first to market effekt then?

Per

PFury67

02-03-06, 08:39 AM

[QUOTE=JBlacklow]There's plenty of tech that came out earlier than it's competitor(s) and still lost. Sony's own Betamax was out for a year before VHS, and the factors often blamed for its failure (storage and studio support) are both on Blu-Ray's side.[/QUOTE]

Studio support will be a big key, which BluRay seems to have quite a bit more then HD-DVD right now.

Storage is a non-issue with either of these formats.

Earz

02-06-06, 10:04 AM

[QUOTE=PFury67]Studio support will be a big key, which BluRay seems to have quite a bit more then HD-DVD right now.
[/QUOTE]

With full Warner support even more so.
BD's got the studio backing to win this little war hands down.

SurfingMatt27

02-06-06, 03:52 PM

Studio support is not set in stone...remember that.

4K display

02-06-06, 04:20 PM

Ya thanks for the revelation :rolleyes:

Earz

02-06-06, 04:38 PM

[QUOTE=SurfingMatt27]Studio support is not set in stone...remember that.[/QUOTE]

It is right now.....remember that ;)

muncey

02-06-06, 05:48 PM

Sony BDP-S1 Blu-ray Disc Player on Amazon

Feb. 6, 2006
Quote:
Today Ranking: #NONE in Electronics

Feb. 5, 2006
Quote:
Yesterday Ranking: #NONE in Electronics

Muncey

Clepto

02-06-06, 05:52 PM

[QUOTE=muncey]Sony BDP-S1 Blu-ray Disc Player on Amazon
Feb. 6, 2006
Quote:
Today Ranking: #NONE in Electronics

Muncey[/QUOTE]

Muncey's Posting
Feb. 6, 2006
Quote:
Today Ranking: #I could give a flip

Earz

02-06-06, 05:59 PM

[QUOTE=muncey]Sony BDP-S1 Blu-ray Disc Player on Amazon

Feb. 6, 2006
Quote:
Today Ranking: #NONE in Electronics

Feb. 5, 2006
Quote:
Yesterday Ranking: #NONE in Electronics

Muncey[/QUOTE]

This player is not even due out until June and will cost at least double the Toshiba, so maybe you should compare the PS3 when its released as it will cost about the same and outsell all hd players in 24 hours time after release.

Gecko85

02-06-06, 06:04 PM

[QUOTE=PFury67]Except for one tiny little nagging detail, HD-DVD will be available before BluRay by at least a few months, at least[/QUOTE]
Another little nagging detail: very few people have HDTV's in their homes. Market penetration is still WELL BELOW 20% (many estimages have it just at or barely above 10%) and won't even top 50% of households until 2010. So a few months will mean nothing at all. Nothing. The masses won't be ready for any Hi-Def player until they have sets capable of using them, and we're still in the very early stages of adoption.

muncey

02-06-06, 06:15 PM

[QUOTE=Earz]This player is not even due out until June and will cost at least double the Toshiba, so maybe you should compare the PS3 when its released as it will cost about the same and outsell all hd players in 24 hours time after release.[/QUOTE]

The Atari 2600 would outsell it too, doesn't mean I'm buying one.

muncey

muncey

02-06-06, 06:20 PM

In fact the Pac-Man cartridge for the Atari 2600 ranked Even better than the Sony Blu Ray Player

Amazon.com Sales Rank: #13,872

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/B0009V1CO8/sr=1-8/qid=1139271439/ref=sr_1_8/102-4182102-8006523?%5Fencoding=UTF8&v=glance

muncey

nyg

02-06-06, 06:25 PM

[QUOTE=muncey]Sony BDP-S1 Blu-ray Disc Player on Amazon

Feb. 6, 2006
Quote:
Today Ranking: #NONE in Electronics

Feb. 5, 2006
Quote:
Yesterday Ranking: #NONE in Electronics

Muncey[/QUOTE]

You cannot order it nor can you pre-order it. So how exactly is it supposed to have a sales ranking? Turn the lightbulb back on buddy.

nyg

02-06-06, 06:26 PM

[QUOTE=SurfingMatt27]Studio support is not set in stone...remember that.[/QUOTE]

Yeah we know, Universal will be supporting BD soon. ;)

muncey

02-06-06, 06:27 PM

[QUOTE=n2blu]You cannot order it nor can you pre-order it. So how exactly is it supposed to have a sales ranking? Turn the lightbulb back on buddy.[/QUOTE]

And thats my fault, i can tell by your member name your a HD-DVD fan ;)

muncey

Earz

02-06-06, 06:32 PM

[QUOTE=n2blu]Yeah we know, Universal will be supporting BD soon. ;)[/QUOTE]

Yep, when I was at Universal all last week the skys were mostly Blu. :D

muncey

02-06-06, 06:37 PM

well i'm near Hollywood and Universal Studios and today especially it's been kinda brown and grey with lots of ashes in the air from the fires.

muncey

Earz

02-06-06, 06:48 PM

[QUOTE=muncey]well i'm near Hollywood and Universal Studios and today especially it's been kinda brown and grey with lots of ashes in the air from the fires.

muncey[/QUOTE]

I was reffering to the theme park in Orlando ;)

nyg

02-07-06, 09:45 AM

[QUOTE=muncey]And thats my fault, i can tell by your member name your a HD-DVD fan ;)

muncey[/QUOTE]

And I can tell by your posts in this thread that you're a troll. What's your point? :rolleyes:

muncey

02-07-06, 10:17 AM

[QUOTE=n2blu]And I can tell by your posts in this thread that you're a troll. What's your point? :rolleyes:[/QUOTE]

I"m supporting both formats, go attack HD-DVD with the rest of the mob. :rolleyes:

muncey

muncey

02-07-06, 10:26 AM

[QUOTE=n2blu]And I can tell by your posts in this thread that you're a troll. What's your point? :rolleyes:[/QUOTE]

At least I'm a neutral troll ;)

muncey

Earz

02-09-06, 08:44 AM

[QUOTE=BillP]As someone else posted in another thread, the war will be over when all the studios back only one format. Until then, it is not over by any means.[/QUOTE]

And with only one left that is the lone hold out on BD, its only common sense that its far more likely for Universal to fold and support BD, well before Sony, all their other related studios and others that are sitting on the BDA board are going to.

Most of these studios would not support hd dvd unless BD died, and thats just not going to happen.

BillP

02-09-06, 09:01 AM

[QUOTE=Earz]And with only one left that is the lone hold out on BD, its only common sense that its far more likely for Universal to fold and support BD, well before Sony, all their other related studios and others that are sitting on the BDA board are going to.

Most of these studios would not support hd dvd unless BD died, and thats just not going to happen.[/QUOTE]
I disagree. Most studios will support whatever they have to in order to maximiize profit. If HD DVD gets great reviews at launch and people buy it, the studios (except for Sony) will start releasing HD DVD movies. If on the other hand reviews are mediocre, then it's probably DOA.

PerHT

02-09-06, 09:19 AM

Well, maximize profits... But, remember they think they hold the winning hand. They will not fold until they've placed their bet. If one format dies and the other survives then they acheive maximum profits.. by having two formats the costs will be higher than just sticking with one.

I do not think that the reviews are essential either. Remember, market penetration takes a long time. It's not done in one month. Also BD is more diversified.. They've got serveral different units, while toshiba only got two with or w/o the Toshiba brand.

Earz

02-09-06, 09:31 AM

BillP

02-09-06, 10:50 AM

Well, we just keep going round and round. It reminds me of football. The favorite does not always win - which is why they need to play the actual game! In the end, the winner will be the one who sells the most, no matter what any of us say or write here. Alternatively, there could be 2 survivors, although it would not surprise me at all if neither is still around 5 years from now.

WriteSimple

02-09-06, 11:00 AM

[QUOTE=BillP]I disagree. Most studios will support whatever they have to in order to maximiize profit. If HD DVD gets great reviews at launch and people buy it, the studios (except for Sony) will start releasing HD DVD movies. If on the other hand reviews are mediocre, then it's probably DOA.[/QUOTE]
I'm pretty sure that HD-DVD won't get a mediocre review from AV sites and publications. If they did, that just won't bode well for Toshiba.

On the other hand, print press especially newspapers that are not sufficiently knowledgeable about these matters, would blow it to pieces primarily on lack of content from the majority of the studios. And J6P often reads newspaper articles on these high tech reviews than AV sites and publication.

I can foresee how the last paragraphs of all of these review articles gonna read. Point 1 - it's too soon for you to invest in HD-DVD, even at US$500. Point 2 - even if you do have HDTV, and it must be HDCP compliant at that, prices of the movies is not going to be as cheap as DVDs. Point 3 - Wait until BD comes out. Then wait some more to see which side will win.

fuad

BillP

02-09-06, 01:21 PM

[QUOTE=WriteSimple]Wait until BD comes out. Then wait some more to see which side will win.[/QUOTE]
Well, that's always been my plan.

4K display

02-11-06, 05:24 PM

For those within reach of a nicely chilled beverage, a toast > The flipper dies when Blu-ray flies! Cheers mates! :D

dreamtheatre

02-13-06, 01:45 PM

[QUOTE=Earz]Yep one format would also be niche for quite a while...no question there....but two may have them both remain niche until the next format war.
Don't you think its about time we as consumers try and stop this format war trend?

Everyone seemed happy with one dvd format and it flourished as a result.
With all the confusion of launching two new hd formats when we are not even ready for one imo, I just don't see two formats as being a good thing in the long term.[/QUOTE]

Earz,

We did have Divx for a while. ;)

The last thing I want is another SACD/DVD-Audio fiasco. While some may regard this as progress in the name of sonic purity it was/is a total commercial flop. I just love going into Best Buy, and seeing the same SACD's on the shelves that were received by the store at the format's launch. Most encouraging. :)

As the Hi-Def war is a different animal I hope and pray for different results...

Jim Z

Earz

02-14-06, 09:30 AM

[QUOTE=dreamtheatre1974]Earz,

We did have Divx for a while. ;)

The last thing I want is another SACD/DVD-Audio fiasco. While some may regard this as progress in the name of sonic purity it was/is a total commercial flop. I just love going into Best Buy, and seeing the same SACD's on the shelves that were received by the store at the format's launch. Most encouraging. :)

As the Hi-Def war is a different animal I hope and pray for different results...

Jim Z[/QUOTE]

Different results indeed :)

Scolo

02-14-06, 09:45 AM

Price. Price is what is going to kill BluRay. Also, the likelihood that none of them will output a Hi Def signal through the component outputs is high. I have a set with HDMI inputs but, I am willing to bet that there are alot of early adopters who have Hi Def displays that do not have DVI or HDMI inputs. These people are not going to pay $1200 to $1800 for a player that will not "work" with their sets. Now they might pay $499. It seems alot of you are forgetting who is responsible for product success, it is not us videophiles here on avs forum, it is Johnny Q Public.

Earz

02-14-06, 10:04 AM

[QUOTE=Scolo]Price. Price is what is going to kill BluRay. Also, the likelihood that none of them will output a Hi Def signal through the component outputs is high. I have a set with HDMI inputs but, I am willing to bet that there are alot of early adopters who have Hi Def displays that do not have DVI or HDMI inputs. These people are not going to pay $1200 to $1800 for a player that will not "work" with their sets. Now they might pay $499. It seems alot of you are forgetting who is responsible for product success, it is not us videophiles here on avs forum, it is Johnny Q Public.[/QUOTE]

You got that backwards.....Johnny doesn't buy until the players cost 49.99 and early adpopters will have far more say.
Johnny will be getting his player via Ps3 , if at all.

johnu

02-18-06, 12:48 AM

[QUOTE=Earz]You got that backwards.....Johnny doesn't buy until the players cost 49.99 and early adpopters will have far more say.
Johnny will be getting his player via Ps3 , if at all.[/QUOTE]

Who is buying all those big screen HDTV's? Certainly most of them are not bought by the in crowd. Places like Costco are selling truckloads of $2000+ HDTV's. If you can afford one of those, $500 or $1000 for a hi def player may be high for some of them, but you would be silly to think that sales to the average Joe are not going to be substantially higher than the so called early adapters. Does anyone actually know how many fit into the early adapter category?

JET99

02-18-06, 01:45 AM

Seemless integration into the existing DVD technology supply chain is the key to HD-DVD and I would expect that Warner will be able to put these discs right in with the other discs with the HD-DVD designation label clearly marked with the 10 dollar extra price tags. It will start slow with few titles and then pick up

People will see the HD-DVD discs in the bins for certain movies, and some will thenl ask

1. what will it give me?

(stated simply) commercial theater quality with an HD set with HDMI hookup

2. do I need a new player and how much?

yes, 500 dollars and probably less in a few months

The most dramatic improvements in HD quality will be for those that own mega size sceen front projectors or very large rear projectors or CRTs, and it may finally force the BIG BOX stores such as Best Buy and Circuit City to end their de facto moratorium on low cost/high impact new generation HD front projectors such as the Sanyo Z4 and the Pan AE900u

PerHT

02-18-06, 03:03 AM

[QUOTE=JET99]Seemless integration into the existing DVD technology supply chain is the key to HD-DVD and I would expect that Warner will be able to put these discs right in with the other discs with the HD-DVD designation label clearly marked with the 10 dollar extra price tags. It will start slow with few titles and then pick up

People will see the HD-DVD discs in the bins for certain movies, and some will thenl ask

1. what will it give me?

(stated simply) commercial theater quality with an HD set with HDMI hookup

2. do I need a new player and how much?

yes, 500 dollars and probably less in a few months
[/QUOTE]

Why spend $500 on a player that only have ~40% studio support? Doesn't make any sense. And I don't think that it will be a seemless intergration of the existing DVD technology. I think it is risky to buy HD-DVD, since this format has the highest probability to die. Also the aggressive pricing strategy forces Toshiba to be all alone in the world. They are the only real producer of HD-DVD-players. BD have the advantage of a diverse BD player universe. Do you think that all consumers are alike? No they are diverse, so are BD. Prices will be fair when this so-called J6P want to buy a HD set & player.

Per

JET99

02-22-06, 12:25 AM

How many "problems" in life can simply be solved with 500 dollars? not many

1. Lets assume in videophile terms, this terrible problem exists, the ongoing HD-DVD and Blu-ray battle, which the audio/video press has relentlessly hyped and now the mainstream press including the NY Times and the major weeklies like TIME and NEWSWEEK have now reported on the issue in somber tones - as if it really was a real war

2. Lets also assume that X has made his/her bet on Blu-ray however they are upset because apparently Blu-ray might miss out on certain movies because Blu-ray initially (at least) will be covering less than 100% of the studio material

3. The problem is largely a myth, because for a mere 500 dollars the Blu-ray advocate can simply buy an HD-DVD player that will fill the gap, and since Net Flix will rent-out both formats, the entire cost of this CRISIS to actually fix it (if that is desired) amounts to 500 dollars, not much for people who have dropped 1000's of dollars on state of the art home theaters and wall mounted plasmas and powerful audio equipment and (often) overpriced "extended warranties" - a total waste in fact.

4. or they can simply ride it out and do w/o Warner content for the time being and eventually buy their Blu-ray player when it become available

500 dollars is probably a high amount, because mid 300 dollars should probably fix the problem for most by later this year

Issac Hunt

02-22-06, 04:38 AM

[QUOTE=JET99]4. or they can simply ride it out and do w/o Warner content for the time being and eventually buy their Blu-ray player when it become available[/QUOTE]
Warner Brothers have announced they will release the same titles on both formats. Maybe you mean Universal?

BTW I'm still amazed that WB would come out in support of Blu ray before Universal. It's a fairly public vote of no confidence in HD-DVD in my opinion.

BillP

02-22-06, 09:19 AM

[QUOTE=Issac Hunt]BTW I'm still amazed that WB would come out in support of Blu ray before Universal. It's a fairly public vote of no confidence in HD-DVD in my opinion.[/QUOTE]
Or, the studios want to maximize their sales and profits, and most will therefore come out with both formats.

Issac Hunt

02-22-06, 11:33 AM

And yet Warner would have earned more from a successful HD-DVD format, due to the patents they hold in DVD extending over. For them to publicly announce support for Blu ray and damage the prospects of Toshiba's boy is extraordinary. In contrast Fox, Sony, Disney et al have shown no indication of also releasing on HD-DVD.

BillP

02-22-06, 12:50 PM

[QUOTE=Issac Hunt]And yet Warner would have earned more from a successful HD-DVD format, due to the patents they hold in DVD extending over. For them to publicly announce support for Blu ray and damage the prospects of Toshiba's boy is extraordinary. In contrast Fox, Sony, Disney et al have shown no indication of also releasing on HD-DVD.[/QUOTE]
I bet that most studios will end up supporting both formats IF sales do well (otherwise, they are leaving money on the table). On the other hand, if one format doesn't take off, then of course the studios will abandon it like a hot potato. Studio support will be fluid - they are all in it for the money!

JET99

02-22-06, 11:43 PM

Point is the entire problem can be fixed by simply buying a player in the additional format which for HD-DVD is 500 dollars or probably 300 to 400 dollars per HD-DVD player later in the year

JET99

02-23-06, 12:11 AM

I believe there are some people confusing on internet vendor sites HD-DVD players with HD DVD players

The first is the Toshiba HD-DVD the new Hi Def format and they are selling at nearly a fixed price

The 2nd refers to conventional DVD recorders with hard drive capability

I see some prices being quoted above that suggest this might be happening

Anyone notice this?

BillP

02-23-06, 08:43 AM

[QUOTE=JET99]I believe there are some people confusing on internet vendor sites HD-DVD players with HD DVD players

The first is the Toshiba HD-DVD the new Hi Def format and they are selling at nearly a fixed price

The 2nd refers to conventional DVD recorders with hard drive capability

I see some prices being quoted above that suggest this might be happening

Anyone notice this?[/QUOTE]
Not to mention possible confusion with upscaling DVD players (frequently called HD on store web sites).

Issac Hunt

02-23-06, 09:50 AM

[QUOTE=BillP]I bet that most studios will end up supporting both formats IF sales do well (otherwise, they are leaving money on the table). On the other hand, if one format doesn't take off, then of course the studios will abandon it like a hot potato. Studio support will be fluid - they are all in it for the money![/QUOTE]
The question though is at what point studios will decide they've had enough and want some of that green from the other format. How many D-VHS machines were sold? And how many studios decided to release on that format? And with how many titles? Presumably there's a minimum level of support that will need to be crossed before any new cross-format announcements are heard.

BillP

02-23-06, 10:48 AM

I agree with you, Isaac. I just don't think any of us can really answer the question. One possible scenario is that Toshiba gets a several month head start, Netflix (as they have said they would do) buys all available movies in HD-DVD format, people see the players and movies in BB and other stores, Toshiba does a decent job marketing/hyping their format (if they are poor marketers, they are sunk), reviews are excellent, HD-DVDs start to sell, and low and behold, other studios feel they are missing out and start putting out HD-DVDs. Of course, another scenario is that the Tosh that comes out is buggy, HD-DVDs don't really look that much better than current DVDs, Tosh does a lousy job marketing, so no hype is generated with their release, reviews are mediocre, and voila, a dead format. And of course there are other scenarios in between. IMO, it's anybody's guess how this will actually turn out.

Dahlsim

02-23-06, 12:14 PM

[QUOTE=Issac Hunt]Warner Brothers have announced they will release the same titles on both formats. Maybe you mean Universal?

BTW I'm still amazed that WB would come out in support of Blu ray before Universal. It's a fairly public vote of no confidence in HD-DVD in my opinion.[/QUOTE]

It's not really difficult to see how Blu Ray vaulted into the lead in terms of industry support. Essentially Sony promised whatever was needed to convince Studios and other Industry players that Blu Ray would be unstoppable and low risk to each of them.

Warner stated along with the other studios that the promise of millions of subsidized Blu Ray players being thrown into homes at an absolute steal was something too strong to pass on. At the same time HD DVD had no counter play to that amazing plan by Sony. Since then HD DVD has made itself look a bit more competitive with a gaming option in Xbox 360 and lower priced standalone players but certainly at the time Sony's promises looked overwhelming.

So Sony pledged the full support of the PS3, an unprecedented implication to put these cutting edge players in millions of homes at presumably a supercheap subsidized cost, cost caps on the media replication that again Sony will take the risk on and an extra layer DRM to satisfy even the most paranoid of studios (FOX).

If anything it's amazing that any Studios held out with promises like that on the table. Now it remains only one thing to see if Sony can actually deliver on all of these promises. If they can and will aborb all the costs to push a player to that degree then more power to Blu Ray, and I'll be picking up my subsidized player.

Dahlsim

02-23-06, 12:24 PM

Of course the possible monkey wrench in the whole thing is whether or not these promises can be delivered at a realistic price in a realistic time frame. Hence all the industry eyes are on the PS3.

I've noticed that most of the comments from key BR supporters like Pioneer, Disney and others lately have been much more along the lines of "Yes we support BR" but.... Basically the tone has been much more of the leave the door open for HD DVD then it was even several months ago.

I'm guessing that it's mostly about seeing how much of the BR promises will actually be delivered, and when while seeing the struggling HD DVD roll out there despite the odds being stacked against it, but with added support from a few key companies now like MS & Intel that while not dominant in this field are not companies people generally take lightly either.

Perhaps HD DVD is an insurance policy to hold as a just in case against Sony's promises.

Issac Hunt

02-23-06, 03:12 PM

Bill, both those scenarios sound plausible, but somehow I can't imagine either happening quite that smoothly. Toshiba launch their player and it goes well: somehow I'd imagine BD companies will be forced to launch ASAP, and if the PS3 isn't available another barebones player might be released to answer Tosh's gambit. On the other hand if Toshiba's launch is a damp squid: Sony can sit on the PS3 for as long as they judge they need to in order to further control initial costs, while the other BD manufacturers are under no pressure to match the early price point. The reality is probably going to be some messy shade of grey down the middle, as per usual. But it's sure gonna be fun to watch, isn't it. :)

[QUOTE=Dahlsim]It's not really difficult to see how Blu Ray vaulted into the lead in terms of industry support. Essentially Sony promised whatever was needed to convince Studios and other Industry players that Blu Ray would be unstoppable and low risk to each of them.

Warner stated along with the other studios that the promise of millions of subsidized Blu Ray players being thrown into homes at an absolute steal was something too strong to pass on. At the same time HD DVD had no counter play to that amazing plan by Sony. Since then HD DVD has made itself look a bit more competitive with a gaming option in Xbox 360 and lower priced standalone players but certainly at the time Sony's promises looked overwhelming. .[/QUOTE]

And yet the HD-DVD (is it with or without the dash, I keep forgetting) add-on drive for the X360 and the cheep Toshiba were announced well before WB's bosses decided they'd release all the same titles on Blu ray as on HD. This was also after doubts had already been raised by some as to the cost and release date of the PS3 (though not by a generally reputable company such as ML). So I agree with you that Sony may have offered the moon to get Warners to bite in the first place (though why a similar offer wouldn't have swayed the recalcitrant Universal is beyond me) but for their second vote of support for Blu ray I don't see any additional promises. It's as if, as you say, HD DVD (did it without the dash that time, so I'll get it right at least once!) has been an insurance policy for the studios all along and they've been using it to chivy the BDA into acceding to their demands.

PS3 cost projections are all over the shop - not that I place much stock in any prediction... As long as the machine is launched in a reasonable time frame, at a reasonable price, and with a decent selection of titles and available units, then it shouldn't be a problem. Of course defining "reasonable" may be where the lines will eventually be drawn. I'd say anything over 3 million this year would be a major success, and anything under 2 million would start to effect it's influence on the early stage of this potential format war. Assuming Toshiba manage to get their gen 2 HD-DVD players off the ground and at a reasonable price.

Dahlsim

02-23-06, 03:43 PM

As long as the machine is launched in a reasonable time frame, at a reasonable price, and with a decent selection of titles and available units, then it shouldn't be a problem.

Exactly, how much, when and availability are all still very much in play.

I'd say even the SKU question is still an open one and the HD DVD prospect may be playing a role in that decision as well. If there were no alternative formats for studios and CE's to go to then Sony may well easily split the SKU and solve the potential finanacial problem, but with an alternative looming they may be finding the decision an even tougher one.

Ken Ross

02-24-06, 09:01 AM

[QUOTE=Earz]500.00 players will not help hd dvd when there missing more than half of the content available.

Don't think for a second that these eight movie studios have not done there homework as far as which format makes the most sense, which console will sell more and be used as a hi res player the most ect ect.

They pay huge amounts of money to investigate which format to back....and obviously the figures paint BD a rosier future than hd dvd.[/QUOTE]

It's funny how the more I read Earz's quotes, the more I find myself rooting for HD DVD! I am 100% totally neutral and will undoubtedly wind up buying both formats, but to see post after post from a guy who continually 'claims' he doesn't 'hate' HD DVD, is really really funny. No matter how logical some poster's counter-arguments are, they are simply dismissed.

The fact is, there is nothing that prevents some/most of the studios not currently supporting HD DVD to play both sides. Despite the fact that only 40% of the studios currently support HD DVD (a fact that Earz must wake up at 4am repeating over and over and over), you can NOT dismiss the $400 pricing of an HD DVD player. Use all the counter-arguments you like Earz, but that IS cheap for a device such as this....even WITH 'only' 40% studio support.

So what's the worst case scenario here? You are 'stuck' with a player that has only 40% studio support, may fail to again acceptance, and have an upconverting player that is STILL fully, 100%, capable of playing all legacy DVDs. Is that the definition of a calamity? I think not. :rolleyes:

rlindo

02-24-06, 11:05 AM

marcvh

02-24-06, 12:17 PM

[QUOTE=Ken Ross]It's funny how the more I read Earz's quotes, the more I find myself rooting for HD DVD![/QUOTE]

You're not the only one.

Grubert

02-24-06, 12:27 PM

[QUOTE=marcvh]You're not the only one.[/QUOTE]

And your girlfriend going on and on about why you should quit smoking makes you want to light a cigarette even more.

But the fact that your GF is such a pain in the arse doesn't change the fact that you really should stop smoking.

Earz

02-24-06, 06:38 PM

[QUOTE=marcvh]You're not the only one.[/QUOTE]

Your location would be a great indication of why ;)

Earz

02-24-06, 06:40 PM

nyg

02-24-06, 06:44 PM

I feel left out of the attacks.

Yours truly,
Blu-ray fanboy

rdjam

02-24-06, 07:11 PM

[QUOTE=rlindo]Agreed. I find the whole format war thing silly and don't care which one "wins" but after seeing this guy go on and on like HD-DVD raped his mother or stole his HT equipment it makes me want to see HD-DVD "win" simply so he can quit his blu-ray fanboyism but no doubt if HD-DVD "wins" Earz won't come on here and publicly admit he was acting like an 8 yr old with his silly fanboyism and turned out to be wrong.

Man...I thought this type of stuff was only done by teenagers where they back something like a technology so much like they plan to hump it. Wow.[/QUOTE]

Absolutely -

And no one's even mentioned yet that Sony lost 5 to 6% percent of their stock value in two days when word came out that the PS3 is delayed due to overheating problems, and that the manufacturing costs now stand at $900!

Sony stands to lose $400 on every sale, or delay the launch to try to bring down manufacturing costs.

Maybe the investors were worried about the following scenario: XBox builds a substantial lead in the console wars due to PS3 being nowhere in sight, then they come out with cheap external HD DVD for a couple hundred dollars (since they recognize that not all users may have HD TVs) in March. Then Sony launches PS3 late and MS immediately starts shipping XBox with internal HD DVD as standard, as well as the external unit for existing owners. To add insult to injury, MS rolls out a price drop later on that puts Sony further in the hole.

Of COURSE this is just hypothetical... isn't it.

On the other side of the coin (regular video players) the entry point for HD DVD now stands around $400. BluRay entry point stands at $1000 to $1800 - more than the cost of the HD sets the majority of Joe-blows are buying right now. So here, again, HD DVD builds a significant lead in volume.

Volume = buyers of movies. Next thing, studios focus on releasing movies on HD DVD first (if their BluRay contracts don't forbid it). Next thing you know, BluRay is a blue elephant.

No one can say or sure how big a lead will be built, or whether BluRay will be able to catch up - but no one can deny that it will happen. Hence the talk of BluRay dominance in 2007. Trouble is I'M buying these suckers NOW. I've waited long enough...

And before anyone calls me biased, don't bother. I'm just using a modicum of common sense. You don't have to agree, but you can't assail the logic. Call me names too if you want - it ain't going to change anything. Sorry...

Being first out of the gate almost ALWAYs confers an advantage. It was how it shook out with the original PS and PS2. Why should anyone assume it can't happen now?

Time to start preparing to call a spade a spade - only a DRAMATIC difference in picture quality and cost will tilt this table now.

slackpiv

02-24-06, 07:21 PM

Being first out of the gate almost ALWAYs confers an advantage. It was how it shook out with the original PS and PS2. Why should anyone assume it can't happen now?
No content and quality did. PS had much more third party support than Nintendo with a huge library. The ps2 was not the first out to the market, but rather the dreamcast was. The Dreamcast had the quality but did not have enough developers.

kevinca1

02-24-06, 07:27 PM

Where are you buying these now?? I guess this is one of the hd-dvd new talking points. THEY ARE NOT AVAILABLE NOW!!!!!!!!!!! and where in the world are you getting it for 400$ the msrp is 499 not 400 but i see when blu-ray is 999 you say 1000 now tell you you are not biased!!!!!!

Dahlsim

02-24-06, 07:29 PM

Then Sony launches PS3 late and MS immediately starts shipping XBox with internal HD DVD as standard, as well as the external unit for existing owners. To add insult to injury, MS rolls out a price drop later on that puts Sony further in the hole.

I'm not sure MS really needs to go with an internal drive until they are sure they are sure they have a successful format on thier hands. The addon drive may be enough to let 360 users know they can do the high def movie thing that PS3 does whenever they get ready to but still allow them the lower price of entry to high def gaming and other services.

If they do ever decide to go internal HD DVD though they will probably need to make sure the HD DVD drive has at least the same loading/transfer drive speed as the current 12x DVD drive they use or they could run into some issues there for compatibility.

Q of BanditZ

02-24-06, 07:33 PM

[QUOTE=rdjam]Absolutely -

And no one's even mentioned yet that Sony lost 5 to 6% percent of their stock value in two days when word came out that the PS3 is delayed due to overheating problems, and that the manufacturing costs now stand at $900![/quote]

For the last time. This is FUD and misinformation. That $900 figure that I KNOW you're quoting from the Merril Lynch piece was ALREADY DEBUNKED. IT"S NOT TRUE!

Sony stands to lose $400 on every sale, or delay the launch to try to bring down manufacturing costs.

Not true. FUD.

I thought we already went through this routine earlier today. You haven't seemed to learn the error of your ways yet.

Maybe the investors were worried about the following scenario: XBox builds a substantial lead in the console wars due to PS3 being nowhere in sight, then they come out with cheap external HD DVD for a couple hundred dollars (since they recognize that not all users may have HD TVs) in March. Then Sony launches PS3 late and MS immediately starts shipping XBox with internal HD DVD as standard, as well as the external unit for existing owners. To add insult to injury, MS rolls out a price drop later on that puts Sony further in the hole.

Of COURSE this is just hypothetical... isn't it.

At least you admit that much. And that's all it is.

On the other side of the coin (regular video players) the entry point for HD DVD now stands around $400

BluRay entry point stands at $1000 to $1800 - more than the cost of the HD sets the majority of Joe-blows are buying right now. So here, again, HD DVD builds a significant lead in volume.

AGAIN you're jumping to conclusions based off of very little!

Don't you all get it yet? AVERAGE JOE IS NOT IN THE EQUATION AND WILL NOT BE FOR YEARS TO COME. PERIOD. POST MARK.

I thought I destroyed this argument yesterday.

Oh yes, I did: http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=647636&page=6&pp=30

see posts 153, 169

Also read post 171.

Sing along with the Q yet again:

"When you wish upon a star...it makes no difference who you are..."

Sheer fantasy.

It's just not there for you guys. It's not reality.

We just keep going in circles with the same nonsense and misinformation in these threads.

Volume = buyers of movies. Next thing, studios focus on releasing movies on HD DVD first (if their BluRay contracts don't forbid it). Next thing you know, BluRay is a blue elephant.

Next thing you know, a pig might fly outside of my window tonight.

No one can say or sure how big a lead will be built, or whether BluRay will be able to catch up - but no one can deny that it will happen. Hence the talk of BluRay dominance in 2007. Trouble is I'M buying these suckers NOW. I've waited long enough...

Again, we've already been through this.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=649122

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=7197715#post7197715

How many threads are you going to repeat the same nonsense in?

And before anyone calls me biased, don't bother. I'm just using a modicum of common sense. You don't have to agree, but you can't assail the logic. Call me names too if you want - it ain't going to change anything. Sorry...

We already went through this with you in two other thread.

Once again, you're forcing me to have doubts as to what your intentions are.

Being first out of the gate almost ALWAYs confers an advantage. It was how it shook out with the original PS and PS2. Why should anyone assume it can't happen now?

Software support? Both PS 1 and PS2 had kick ass support right out of the gate...just like Blu-Ray will.

And one last thing. Again:

Here's one of many examples from one of the worst offenders of spin and misinformation in this area of the forum, at least:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=7185128#post7185128
Post 8
[quote=DeadmeatGA]
1. Affordable and immediately available. [color=red](<- bold faced lie -Q )[/color]
2. Vista
3. Cheap replication.
4. Chinese players.[/quote]
^^
That sure as hell isn't a recipie for a quality product. No way around it. What a dead giveaway. This is the best that even HE could come up with?

Wow.

Stop spreading the damned lies! Give it up!

Earz

02-24-06, 07:40 PM

Q....just read his post history....its all there ;)

Q of BanditZ

02-24-06, 07:51 PM

[QUOTE=rdjam]
On the other side of the coin (regular video players) the entry point for HD DVD now stands around $400.

BluRay entry point stands at $1000 to $1800 - more than the cost of the HD sets the majority of Joe-blows are buying right now. So here, again, HD DVD builds a significant lead in volume.[/quote]

One piece of misinformation I forgot:

Who's selling the Toshiba HD-DVD player for $400?

I'd like to know, since the last time I checked, their cheapest model was MSRP's at $500.

Best Buy cancelled their orders of the one that was $300-something.

Man, this FUD and misinformation flows like water in these forums!

I'll call a spade a spade: It's LYING. I'm tired of the friggin' LYING around here.

Earz

02-24-06, 08:07 PM

[QUOTE=Ken Ross]It's funny how the more I read Earz's quotes, the more I find myself rooting for HD DVD! I am 100% totally neutral and will undoubtedly wind up buying both formats, but to see post after post from a guy who continually 'claims' he doesn't 'hate' HD DVD, is really really funny. No matter how logical some poster's counter-arguments are, they are simply dismissed.

The fact is, there is nothing that prevents some/most of the studios not currently supporting HD DVD to play both sides. Despite the fact that only 40% of the studios currently support HD DVD (a fact that Earz must wake up at 4am repeating over and over and over), you can NOT dismiss the $400 pricing of an HD DVD player. Use all the counter-arguments you like Earz, but that IS cheap for a device such as this....even WITH 'only' 40% studio support.

So what's the worst case scenario here? You are 'stuck' with a player that has only 40% studio support, may fail to again acceptance, and have an upconverting player that is STILL fully, 100%, capable of playing all legacy DVDs. Is that the definition of a calamity? I think not. :rolleyes:[/QUOTE]

Ken, my opinions are based on now....and not what if...the facts are that the only studios so far to change there support stance, have been to support Blu Ray, and not the other way around.
Also if you read the first post it says imo.....but if you don't have anything more than what ifs or maybe in the future....which we have already heard....and you want to continue with personal attacks....it says more about yourself than me.

Another thing is that your not allowed to mention anything other than msrp which is 499.00 and not 400.00 ;)

AnthonyP

02-24-06, 09:21 PM

And no one's even mentioned yet that Sony lost 5 to 6% percent of their stock value in two days when word came out that the PS3 is delayed due to overheating problems, and that the manufacturing costs now stand at $900!

ML came back with oops, can't add meant to say 800 but I am sure all the other numbers that I did not say where they came from must be right to get to 800$

On the other side of the coin (regular video players) the entry point for HD DVD now stands around $400. BluRay entry point stands at $1000 to $1800

where are those 400$ players, Toshiba said 500$ guess you went to the ML school of new math. print BS numbers and hope no one will notice

more than the cost of the HD sets the majority of Joe-blows are buying right now

500$ is more then most JB's sets as well. JB also has a 30$ DVD player that he thinks it is as good as it gets

No one can say or sure how big a lead will be built, or whether BluRay will be able to catch up - but no one can deny that it will happen. Hence the talk of BluRay dominance in 2007. Trouble is I'M buying these suckers NOW. I've waited long enough...

? dominance means MUCH bigger, it does not mean catch up. So far Sony said 20titles in march/April, that is more titrles then TW (the only HD studio that talked dates) stated for that period

DVD sold around 30k players in its first month. Like you said we don't know what the delta will be, but it is realistic that it will only be 1-2 months. No matter when it does even up to 6 months a weak after the PS3 comes out there will be more BD players then HD-DVD (actually chances are more PS3s then other BD and HD-DVD players combined)

Trouble is I'M buying these suckers NOW. I've waited long enough...

exactly why I am buying BD, to have movies and a player, what a concept. But I guess HD-DVD fanboys can watch their DVDs on their 500$ DVD player

Ken Ross

02-24-06, 10:15 PM

[QUOTE=Earz]Ken, my opinions are based on now....and not what if...the facts are that the only studios so far to change there support stance, have been to support Blu Ray, and not the other way around.
[/QUOTE]

Earz, c'mon now, you know very well that there isn't a studio in hell that would not go over to the 'dark side' if there was a decent market to be had. Do you really think these studios would ignore a significant market? Do you really believe there is some special allegience to Sony that would make them turn their backs on a significant market share? C'mon, this is the good ol' U.S. of A. It's really really not a big stretch to see this happening. Please, cast your obvious bias aside and look at the reality of big business. ;)

Oh, and there was no 'personal attack' from me...I was simply stating a fact that is undeniable, you are constantly attacking HD DVD.

marcvh

02-24-06, 10:24 PM

[QUOTE=Earz]Your location would be a great indication of why ;)[/QUOTE]

Um, yeah. Only something like 1% of the people in the Seattle area work for Microsoft, if that's what you're hinting at, and I'm not one of them. I suppose you're a Blu-ray fanboy because you work for Steelcase?

Earz

02-25-06, 01:50 AM

[QUOTE=Ken Ross]Earz, c'mon now, you know very well that there isn't a studio in hell that would not go over to the 'dark side' if there was a decent market to be had. Do you really think these studios would ignore a significant market? Do you really believe there is some special allegience to Sony that would make them turn their backs on a significant market share? C'mon, this is the good ol' U.S. of A. It's really really not a big stretch to see this happening. Please, cast your obvious bias aside and look at the reality of big business. ;)

Oh, and there was no 'personal attack' from me...I was simply stating a fact that is undeniable, you are constantly attacking HD DVD.[/QUOTE]

Sorry Ken, there is no point in me saying that studios would jump to the other side if Blu Ray shot itself in the foot and died, the Ps3 showed up without a BD movie player ect because its not likely to happen.

I have said many times.....but many aren't listening.....I only want one format as two have zero chance of becoming mainstream in a market thats not even close enough to being big enough to support one format for quite a while.

If hd dvd had all the software and hardware support, I would be rooting for it to be the only format, and if there were no Blu Ray, I of course would already have ordered an hd dvd player ....Toesheeeeeeeba. ..brand or not.

But this is not the situation, and some just can't seem to grasp this at all.....but I do, and will support the lead horse that also has more future spec potential down the road.

Its pretty simple really....and I don't have to add spin to peoples posts, or quote out of context, lie, mis lead, or do any childish personal attacks to get my point across....nor do I care which formats you do or don't buy .....based on someone elses posts.

I call this my honest opinion based on support ect, and you call it being a fan boy so I guess theres no room here for common ground.

Disclaimer....and no, I am not accusing you of doing all these things, but there is plenty of it to be found.

Issac Hunt

02-25-06, 03:20 AM

Ken Ross

02-25-06, 10:18 AM

[QUOTE=Earz]
Disclaimer....and no, I am not accusing you of doing all these things, but there is plenty of it to be found.[/QUOTE]

And that's what bugs the hell out of me not only in this section, but in so many areas of AVS. Many people find it very hard to discuss the facts objectively, they take sides and then anyone that has a counter argument is chastised, maligned, called names etc. I've seen quite a bit of that right here and it doesn't do any prospective buyer any good.

As I've said before, I agree with you from the standpoint that two competing formats rarely does the consumer any good. But that's behind us now, there ARE two competing formats. Yes, right now Blu-Ray has the lead in terms of studio support, but that surely doesn't negate the merits of HD DVD and its being first out of the gate. Additionally, the greater studio support for Blu-Ray does not guarantee its long term victory. As I've said before, I don't find the price tag of HD DVD to be so onerous as to disuade me from having the best playback medium there currently is (in about a month...assuming no delays). Whenever Blu-Ray hits the streets, I'm sure I'll pick up one of those too.

Will HD DVD last? Maybe, maybe not. As I've said before, the worst that can happen is you'll have a perfectly good, up-converting DVD player that will happily play all your legacy DVDs. Is that such a bad thing? Not to me.

Ken Ross

02-25-06, 10:23 AM

[QUOTE=Issac Hunt]Why would a studio like Fox who have serious reservations about piracy start to release on HD-DVD? Have Toshiba just changed their copy protection system to placate this studio, or do you think Fox will suddenly forget what it's hoping to achieve with this next gen format? Sony ditto. Neither looks like releasing on HD-DVD for quite some time, if ever. And if they don't there's little chance of ever seeing a "significant market" for HD-DVD, which is sort of the catch22 this format finds itself in. Without studio support there's unlikely to be a large market for this device, and yet without a large market the studios aren't likely to release their movies for Tosh. So far the flow of studio support has been one way traffic: ebbing away from HD-DVD towards Blu ray.[/QUOTE]

You may be right, but you may be wrong. The power of the dollar might well make studios like Fox think twice. They may well come to realize that the copy-protection that HD DVD is offering is 'good enough'...the thought of additional profits can do that. By the same token, Sony didn't do itself any good from a PR standpoint with their little 'copy protection' fiasco a couple of months ago. That was pretty embarrassing and much of the media came down very hard on Sony. I know of a few people that simply won't buy Sony 'anything' anymore as a result of that.

Earz

02-25-06, 10:47 AM

[QUOTE=Ken Ross]And that's what bugs the hell out of me not only in this section, but in so many areas of AVS. Many people find it very hard to discuss the facts objectively, they take sides and then anyone that has a counter argument is chastised, maligned, called names etc. I've seen quite a bit of that right here and it doesn't do any prospective buyer any good.

As I've said before, I agree with you from the standpoint that two competing formats rarely does the consumer any good. But that's behind us now, there ARE two competing formats. Yes, right now Blu-Ray has the lead in terms of studio support, but that surely doesn't negate the merits of HD DVD and its being first out of the gate. Additionally, the greater studio support for Blu-Ray does not guarantee its long term victory. As I've said before, I don't find the price tag of HD DVD to be so onerous as to disuade me from having the best playback medium there currently is (in about a month...assuming no delays). Whenever Blu-Ray hits the streets, I'm sure I'll pick up one of those too.

Will HD DVD last? Maybe, maybe not. As I've said before, the worst that can happen is you'll have a perfectly good, up-converting DVD player that will happily play all your legacy DVDs. Is that such a bad thing? Not to me.[/QUOTE]

No guarantees in life... or formats....I agree 100%...and thats why I put imo in my very first post.
Yes I got caught up in some silly arguments in this thread and also fell for obvious bait at times....but the main point of the thread was supposed to be why imo, I thought Blu Ray would win by 07.

As far as an up scaling sd dvd player....I already have one of the very best players short of the Denon 5910 for picture quality, and even better than the 5910 for audio,+ I have an Oppo that I did not return on time, thats used for other region movies.....or if I leave town so my kids don't mess with my reference 2k player.

I highly doubt that any of the new players on either format will compare as an sd player, unless of course 1080p up scaling of sd dvd ends up improving the P/Q over 720p/1080i up scaling.

I realize that there are two formats, but do not see why I am supposed to be obligated to say yes to more future format wars by buying into both.
I sold my d-vhs player as well as all movies, and want one format to replace and surpass d-vhs.
I also think there will be more titles available at our local retailers much quicker if they only have to stock one as opposed to two new formats.

I will most likely not be buying into hd dvd unless its the only format available, but you can buy two players to make up for my non purchase if you like :)

Andrew P

02-25-06, 05:45 PM

[QUOTE=Q of BanditZ]For the last time. This is FUD and misinformation. That $900 figure that I KNOW you're quoting from the Merril Lynch piece was ALREADY DEBUNKED. IT"S NOT TRUE![/Quote]

$900 is incorrect. But you neglected to mention the Merril Lynch figure is $800. This was not debunked.

[Quote=Q of BanditZ]One piece of misinformation I forgot:

Who's selling the Toshiba HD-DVD player for $400?

I'd like to know, since the last time I checked, their cheapest model was MSRP's at $500.[/Quote]

$450 from Crutchfield with coupon that anyone could have gotten and Crutchfield is always priced high.

In fairness to PS3 im sure it will be very good when it comes out, but if its similar to the PS2, XBOX 360 dvd player quality then I its nothing I would get excited about. The video quality is awful, not that it matters to the regular consumer as they will probably use component outputs with their sharpness control set to 100. I dont have high hopes for either format as the average consumer just doesnt care and wont spend more money per movie for a better picture. Give it a few years.

Its amazing how people lets their biases come through with the information they provide. Its ok that you want Blu Ray to succeed, but at least give all the info.
Andy

Andrew P

02-25-06, 05:52 PM

[QUOTE=Earz]No guarantees in life... or formats....I agree 100%...and thats why I put imo in my very first post.
Yes I got caught up in some silly arguments in this thread and also fell for obvious bait at times....but the main point of the thread was supposed to be why imo, I thought Blu Ray would win by 07.[/QUOTE]

Silly arguments are fun. Nothing wrong with that. I dont see this format war being over anytime before 2008. The real losers will be the manufactures of the hardware.

I dont care who wins as im buying both, because I want content. In a few years anyway movies will not be on a disc based format. I think the whole argument is silly.

The studios dont care about the format. They try to sell 5 versions of the same movie on DVD. In my opinion, they will jump ship one way or the other based on sales.
Andy

Esox50

02-25-06, 06:35 PM

[QUOTE=Andrew P]$450 from Crutchfield with coupon that anyone could have gotten and Crutchfield is always priced high.[/QUOTE]
Come on now. I think they were pointing out the fact that people were quoting $400 for HD-DVD vs $1,000 for BD. That is comparing a street price to a MSRP.

To compare, you either state:
1.)MSRPs, in which case it's $500 vs. $1,000 (give or take a $1 for those of you who are anal rententive)

2.)"Street Price", in which case people are claiming $400 for HD-DVD and it is yet unknown as to what the street price will be for the BD players. Using the same 20% discount for BD though, it would come to $800.

But people are running around claiming $400 vs. $1,000, and that just plain ain't right.

Q of BanditZ

02-25-06, 06:38 PM

[QUOTE=Andrew P]Silly arguments are fun. Nothing wrong with that. I dont see this format war being over anytime before 2008. The real losers will be the manufactures of the hardware.

I dont care who wins as im buying both, because I want content. In a few years anyway movies will not be on a disc based format. I think the whole argument is silly.

The studios dont care about the format. They try to sell 5 versions of the same movie on DVD. In my opinion, they will jump ship one way or the other based on sales.
Andy[/QUOTE]

Now this I will agree with 100 percent, especially that last paragraph.

As for the Merril Lynch thing:
http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=646288&page=1&pp=30

See post 1. I get so confused these days when you have FUD Kings like this constantly posting misinformation unchecked.

An alarm goes off in my head anytime that spindoctor puts up a thread and it should for anyone else around here as well.

Look over that thread real quick and I think you'll get more than enough of your fill on the entire subject.

The ML estimate is bunk. You need go no further than post 3 to start seeing contradictions and illogic: http://www.gamespot.com/news/2005/06/28/news_6128295.html

So, which is it? $800, $900? $500?

Look at post 23. I don't need to recyle this whole argument here. Jump in that thread and have at it.

rdjam

02-26-06, 07:57 AM

I'm glad that my analysis has stirred up some good debate!

When making my analysis I am sure that it is impossible to get exact numbers, so forgive being $100 out here or there on the costs of PS3 manaufacture or on the cost of initial units from both camps - BUT in principle I believe in what I am saying.

And to all of you who feel that I am working for some clandestine PR company and have some secret interest to spin for HD DVD - HAH. Seriously? I'm not, and this is not a religious debate, either.

Like someone else said here, I'll buy both players (not at the same time obviously). But John Public will likely only afford one - and which one is more afordable? When it comes to supporting one - I think the BluRay is in serious trouble and am merely pointing out why.

My only goal is to get as much HiDef material into my hands as soon as possible. I'm existed that it appears that one of the formats is going to build an early lead. It costs the studios time and money to support both formats and will SLOW the introduction of more goods for me to buy.

I for one, hope that this standards battle is over as soon as possible - not 2008 - because it'll just make everything more expensive in the mean time. Except players, that is. The format battle has caused new HD players to be introduced at half the price of the first DVD players. That's good, and I welcome it. If it had been BluRay out the door first, and so cheap, then I would be exulting for that in reverse - SIMPLE.

Issac Hunt

02-26-06, 09:02 AM

These arguments go round and round in circles. If Joe Public was looking to invest in an HD player in a month then HD-DVD would be their only option (assuming Tosh get it out this time), and in 3 months the HD-A1 will probably be the cheapest HD optical media player out. BUT... What makes anyone think Joe Public is going to be buying one of the 10,000 Toshiba players? Why would this section of the market be looking to invest in a $500-$800 HD-DVD player when their TV is probably still SD? That no make no sense!

Q of BanditZ

02-26-06, 09:16 AM

Since we're doing this in more than one thread.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=7203596#post7203596

[QUOTE=rdjam]I'm glad that my analysis has stirred up some good debate![/quote]

LOL! Your analysis?!

My friend, all you did was post a bunch of opinions and speculations (many off of misinformation) and tried to pass some of that of as fact!

Is that all we have to do around here now to earn the weighty term of "analysis?"

That term sure doesn't have the meaning it once did, if that's all it takes.

[quote=rdjam]
When making my analysis...[/quote]

Again, LOL!

[quote=rdjam]... I am sure that it is impossible to get exact numbers, so being $100 out here or there on the costs of PS3 manaufacture or on the cost of initial units from both camps is hardly relevant in comparison to the SCOPE of the GAP I am highlighting - in principle I still believe in what I am saying.[/quote]

Yeah, screw being accurate.

What's $100 here or there, right? It only adds up after a point when you talk about several components!

Ah, we won't let pesky details and facts like THAT get in the way! .

DeadmeatGA would be proud of you!

[quote=rdjam]
The above post with release schedules on hardware looks a bit desparate, as it is dated from 2004 (!) and seems to ignore all the current indications that BR hardware is running late and will be much higher-priced.[/quote]

Can you back this statement up with anything concrete?

[quote=rdjam]
And to all of you who feel that I am working for some clandestine PR company and have some secret interest to spin for HD DVD - HAH. [/quote]

I don't think there's been anything clandestine here. I think it's right out in the open.

[quote=rdjam]Seriously? I'm not, and this is not a religious debate, either, so waving BR flags and chanting "death to the plotters from the dark side" hardly wins you any debates based on merit.[/quote]

You certainly have been putting on a fairly decent impersonation of that, even if you aren't.

Starting with the original title of this thread, and its brother: http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=649119

The original title of this thread didn't have any question marks. Those were supplied by the mods. Combine that with just your opening post and it's a goner. DOA.

So if anything, I'd ask you: How could any of us NOT confuse you as a shill or a tool for HD-DVD at this point?

[quote=rdjam]
Like someone else said here, I'll buy both players (not at the same time obviously). But John Public will likely only afford one - and which one is more afordable? When it comes to supporting one - I think the BluRay is in serious trouble and am merely pointing out why.[/quote]

You have NOT made your case AT ALL with anything concrete. FACTUAL, or meaningful!

In case you hadn't noticed, you've been blown out of the park in this thread!

[quote=rdjam] And even I will make HD DVD my PRIMARY format and invest less in BR. [/quote]

Again, for the millionth, zillionth time. John Public, Average Joe, whatever the hell you want to call him is NOT IN THIS BALLGAME AND WILL NOT BE FOR THE FORSEEABLE FUTURE.

We are strictly in early adopter land for BOTH FORMATS.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=647636&page=6&pp=30

Once yet again: See posts 153, 169, just for starters.

It's like an episode of Star Trek around here. We're stuck in a "casuality loop." We keep going in the same useless circles in these threads.

[quote=rdjam]
My only goal is to get as much HiDef material into my hands as soon as possible. I'm existed that it appears that one of the formats is going to build an early lead. It costs the studios time and money to support both formats and will SLOW the introduction of more goods for me to buy.

I for one, hope that this standards battle is over as soon as possible - not 2008 - because it'll just make everything more expensive in the mean time. Except players, that is. The format battle has caused new HD players to be introduced at half the price of the first DVD players. That's good, and I welcome it. If it had been BluRay out the door first, and so cheap, then I would be exulting for that in reverse - SIMPLE.[/QUOTE]

I agree with this last part of your statement, but frankly, I'm not sure it's been that simple for you on this forum.

You haven't left me much room to NOT have some doubts about you. Sorry.

Earz

02-26-06, 09:35 AM

[QUOTE=rdjam]I'm glad that my analysis has stirred up some good debate!

When making my analysis I am sure that it is impossible to get exact numbers, so forgive being $100 out here or there on the costs of PS3 manaufacture or on the cost of initial units from both camps - BUT in principle I believe in what I am saying.

And to all of you who feel that I am working for some clandestine PR company and have some secret interest to spin for HD DVD - HAH. Seriously? I'm not, and this is not a religious debate, either.

Like someone else said here, I'll buy both players (not at the same time obviously). But John Public will likely only afford one - and which one is more afordable? When it comes to supporting one - I think the BluRay is in serious trouble and am merely pointing out why.

My only goal is to get as much HiDef material into my hands as soon as possible. I'm existed that it appears that one of the formats is going to build an early lead. It costs the studios time and money to support both formats and will SLOW the introduction of more goods for me to buy.

I for one, hope that this standards battle is over as soon as possible - not 2008 - because it'll just make everything more expensive in the mean time. Except players, that is. The format battle has caused new HD players to be introduced at half the price of the first DVD players. That's good, and I welcome it. If it had been BluRay out the door first, and so cheap, then I would be exulting for that in reverse - SIMPLE.[/QUOTE]

John will be buying no players in either format.
The first dvd players were 500.00 so were are you coming from with your constantly wrong information in your posts?

Your making Q's blood pressure go through the roof with all this FUD.
Do you really want that on your shoulders? :D

Q of BanditZ

02-26-06, 09:36 AM

[QUOTE=Earz]John will be buying no players in either format.
The first dvd players were 500.00 so were are you coming from with your constantly wrong information in your posts?

Your making Q's blood pressure go through the roof with all this FUD.
Do you really want that on your shoulders? :D[/QUOTE]

My friend, I'm so used to it by now around here that people would have to be on strong chemical substances to be any calmer than I am. :)

efranzen

02-26-06, 09:52 AM

[QUOTE=Earz]
The first dvd players were 500.00[/QUOTE]

Quite remarkable really. The first DVD was $500 and the first HD-DVD player is going to be $500 yet there is nearly a decade of inflation between those two events.

Earz

02-26-06, 11:12 AM

[QUOTE=efranzen]Quite remarkable really. The first DVD was $500 and the first HD-DVD player is going to be $500 yet there is nearly a decade of inflation between those two events.[/QUOTE]

Yep it wasn't much of a player, and came with karaoke, but the first Sony ES was a fantastic player to replace it with.

Not as remarkable as Blu Ray titles being the same wholesale price as in 1997.
Only in 97, there was one format, not two , with one having 90% support and the other with less than 40% ;)

Q of BanditZ

02-26-06, 11:19 AM

I still remember when I bought that $500 Sony player. I think it was second gen or early third? Nice enough, but a year later, when I saw that sucker down below $200...I felt pain.

dialog_gvf

02-26-06, 12:08 PM

[QUOTE=Q of BanditZ]
Again, for the millionth, zillionth time. John Public, Average Joe, whatever the hell you want to call him is NOT IN THIS BALLGAME AND WILL NOT BE FOR THE FORSEEABLE FUTURE.

We are strictly in early adopter land for BOTH FORMATS.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=647636&page=6&pp=30
[/QUOTE]

But, both sides are trying to change this and move up the early to general adoption transition point.

Toshiba: Cheap players soon
Sony: PS/3

The early adopter phase lasted about 2.5 years with DVD. I think there is a good chance it will be much less this time.

For Toshiba and HD DVD fans, they are betting on it occuring within a year of launch. THAT is hard to believe.

Gary

BillP

02-26-06, 12:29 PM

There is an interesting article in today's NY Times.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/26/business/26disks.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

The author claims that although BR still has the lead, HD-DVD is catching up. It also states at one point that these new formats will not really take off until 2008 (consistent with what everyone is saying that J6P will not be a factor for a while). If true, then referring back to the original question of this thread, nobody will dominate by '07.

efranzen

02-26-06, 12:32 PM

[quote=efranzen]Originally Posted by efranzen
Quite remarkable really. The first DVD was $500 and the first HD-DVD player is going to be $500 yet there is nearly a decade of inflation between those two events.

[/quote]

[QUOTE=Earz]
Not as remarkable as Blu Ray titles being the same wholesale price as in 1997.[/QUOTE]

If they can do it with the software, hopefully they can do it with the hardware as well. $1000 for a player it outside my budget.

Q of BanditZ

02-26-06, 12:34 PM

[QUOTE=BillP]There is an interesting article in today's NY Times.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/26/business/26disks.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

The author claims that although BR still has the lead, HD-DVD is catching up. It also states at one point that these new formats will not really take off until 2008 (consistent with what everyone is saying that J6P will not be a factor for a while). If true, then referring back to the original question of this thread, nobody will dominate by '07.[/QUOTE]

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=649660&page=2
^^ See the author of this thread? You didn't really think the King of FUD would miss this would you?

You can see my take on the subject there. I wouldn't run to the bank with this.

Shad0wz

02-26-06, 12:34 PM

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/26/business/26disks.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

Q of BanditZ

02-26-06, 12:35 PM

[QUOTE=Shad0wz]http://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/26/business/26disks.html?_r=1&oref=slogin[/QUOTE]

The link was just posted three posts up!

BillP

02-26-06, 12:56 PM

I see now that the link has been posted in several different threads, including some dedicated to the article. Sorry about the duplication. IMO, the article does bring up some interesting points. However, I am generally not very impressed with the press when it comes to covering technical stuff. I can tell you that in my field (healthcare), the press get their facts wrong so often, it's good for a good chuckle (I will never forget one article in which they were recommending Bristol Myers Squibb because of some great medicine for blood pressure, the only problem being the drug they mentioned was for cholesterol, not blood pressure). And then of course there are numerous examples where the financial press totally believe whatever the company tells them (think Enron). So yes, one must always read articles with a grain of salt. But still, interesting reading.