PPP: Plasma Price Plunge

[bigtvluvr]

(Please don't post prices so we don't get banned!!)

Has anybody seen any trade articles which explain the plunge in plasma pricing the last few weeks (about 20%)?

The dollar has been weak, usually that would work against price-cutting.

Anybody see anything article-wise, post it.

[Cutwolf]

People might be getting tired of having to wait hundreds of hours before they can take their new Ferrari over 50 mph.


*ducks*

[optivity]

unless they wish to crash & [color=red]burn[/color]... :p

[GlennMaples]

1) For the average joe and jane -- all the pictures look pretty damn good.
2) This gives less leverage for the many people trying to sell at a premium
Fuji/Pioneer we have the best picture (plasma)
Sony no, it's us (RP)
No, it's LCD
No its LED RP
OK SED is vaporware, but you get the idea
3) Unless you are the kind if guy who would kick Paris Hilton out of your bed because you don't like lime green thongs, all of these choices and many many other are fine.
4) We are reaching a tipping point on prices; for the next year price drops are going to be under the influence of gravity (accelerating). For most brands MSRPs will drop and sales (20-40% off) will become much more frequent. We do not think anything unusual about CRTs being on sale at these discounts. They will be even more common in HD as not only do we have many competing companies but also technologies and huge capacities coming on line.
5) Consolidation in the industry (and among resellers) is coming as a result of these drops. Again, one of my picks as vulnerable is Pioneer.

-glenn

[GlennMaples]

One more data point -

50" 720p/1080i Plasma now being advertised below $2000. :-)

Too bad I did not want to wait another six months, last year I predicted 50" would drop as low as $1500 this year, things are looking pretty good for black Friday.



-glenn

[bigtvluvr]

[QUOTE=GlennMaples]One more data point - 50" 720p/1080i Plasma now being advertised below $2000. :-) Too bad I did not want to wait another six months, last year I predicted 50" would drop as low as $1500 this year, things are looking pretty good for black Friday. -glenn[/QUOTE]

Really? I don't want to cross the line with price specificity, but I would guess it's not a top-flight manufacturer. The 42" Philips and Panny's are in the low-2's and I suspect the Pioneer is a few hundred higher. And I assume we're talking HDTV, of course.

For a 50" plasma to be that cheap, probably a low-end model (not the current top-of-the-lines that will be superceded in a few months) or a brand like RCA, Zenith, etc.

[bigtvluvr]

Getting back the main thrust of this thread: what are the main features on Philips and Panasonic's next generation of plasmas, specifically the 42" and up?

Are they going to be 1080P ???

I think the 42" Philips might have Ambilight 2 but that's not enough to cut pricing on the 9630 by 20% in a manner of weeks.

Nobody has any Far East or plamsa TV links ??? :confused:

[LXIX]

BIGTVLUVR,

I cannot speak to Philips price cuts, but I can provide some insight into Panasonic's price moves.

1. A new factory. This factory came on-line in September and doubled their manufacturing capabilities. They may be seeing the fruits of higher efficiency. Larger capacity and lower defectives off the line, these factors always reduce cost.

2. Panasonic G9 panels use thinner glass. The glass is nearly 40% thinner than G8. Fewer materials used means lower manufacturing costs. This glass reduction also increases brightness and reduced black levels. These new panels consume less electricity than last year because of the thinner glass so you may be seeing a cost savings in the power supply.

3. More functions controlled in a single IC. Panasonics scaling, processing and video conversion is all done on a single chip this year (I believe). This saves cost.

4. Panasonic wants to push as many competitors out of the plasma market as possible. Being a huge company with massive production capacity and aspirations of ruling the (plasma) world has its privileges. I would imagine that Panasonic is making razor thin profits in plasma to force others to react or get out of the business all together.

Look at Sony, Fujitsu, NEC, JVC, Mitsubishi, Philips and Toshiba. All of them are out of the plasma "Manufacturing" game and either gave-up on the technology or are having others OEM the panels for them. Even Pioneer was forced to close two plasma factories in order to keep from bleeding profits. This OEM work is very profitable for a company like Panasonic who can then under-cut their prices.

I hope that this helps.

[thegurujim]

[QUOTE=Cutwolf]People might be getting tired of having to wait hundreds of hours before they can take their new Ferrari over 50 mph.


*ducks*[/QUOTE]


That's funny, for cars they suggest you don't pass a recommend RPM and speed limit until several hundred miles. How is that different from a plasma break in time?

[Cutwolf]

[QUOTE=thegurujim]That's funny, for cars they suggest you don't pass a recommend RPM and speed limit until several hundred miles. How is that different from a plasma break in time?[/QUOTE]


Your Ferrari likely won't be permanently damaged if you exceed 75 MPH as soon as you get it. Plasmas, on the other hand...

[Tditti]

noticed the exact same thing - I've seen the 50 vizio around for, well, cheap...(and I mean REALLY cheap), and it was an everyday price not a promotion or mail-in rebate etc.

and I've seen the panasonics and pioneers not that far behind (especially the pannys)...




Keep your fingers crossed for the 50'' next gen panny commercial plasma w/ hdmi or 2 for 22-24!

[kylebisme]

[QUOTE=Cutwolf]Your Ferrari likely won't be permanently damaged if you exceed 75 MPH as soon as you get it. Plasmas, on the other hand...[/QUOTE]
Acutally if you run a car too hard when it is new then it's engine will always run rougher after that than it otherwise would. On the other hand if you happen to fade out some of the pixels on a plasma more than others you can just run the same content with the negitive image option to fade the other pixels down to match. Hence, the break-in period on a plasma isn't nearly as crucial as that of a car.

[bigtvluvr]

According to the guy at 1 retailer, there was a recall (?) on older 2005 9630's. Not sure why that necessitates a price-cutting on the OK-2006 models. The 9630 was priced the same as the 7620. But if this was an industry-wide recall, others did NOT have the 9630 at the same price -- it was significantly higher.

Anybody know anything about a recall on the Philips 9630? I still don't understand why a recall leads to a price cut on a top-of-the-line model unless inventory builds or you just want to give the product away.

Anyway, the special pricing ends this weekend so I'll check where pricing goes in a few weeks to see if this decline has staying power.

Very strange...

[bigtvluvr]

Still seeing low plasma pricing....anybody hearing anything ?

[jdobbs2001]

Simple, as stated above. They are bigger,heavier,more prone to damage VS LCD, to the average user they cant tell the difference between this plasma (which has a bad rap) and the LCD.

This means glut in inventory, low demand high supply = price drops

[billybob_jcv]

IMHO, it's not the LCDs - it has more to do with the influx of the cheap Chinese plasmas - Maxent, Vizio, etc, and the drop in prices of the RPs. IMHO (again) good 40"+ LCDs are still too expensive to compete directly against the plasmas. The cheap 40" LCDs just don't have the PQ (to me) for movies & HDTV - for games, OK.

[westa6969]

I find it interesting that Mike53 of Sharp USA provided notice to this forum a few months back that these price drops were going to occur and that big things were ahead in the Fall for Sharp anyways once their new plant opens in October.

If anyone needs to feel the pressure for a price cut it's Sharp as their large panels are priced outrageously I guess they have no competition in their 57", 65" LCD panels sizes however that should change with Samsung bringing on their new 57" LCD with 1080P inputs very soon with an MSRP of $10K which is $5-$6K lower than the Sharp 57". Competition forces pricing down if the productivity levels are present. Then with Panasonic PDP selling a 58" for half the price of the LCD or a 65" 1080P pricing should finally come down on these monster sized flat panels and a good example is the Samsung 63" HLR PDP which has dropped to nearly half it's MSRP recently and I also anticipate they'll be replacing that HLR with an "S" series that may be 1080P since they showed them in Germany back in March.

Looks like Mike53 knew what he was talking about and now all we need to see is Sharp joining the price reductions with it's big boy LCD's. I would expect perhaps Sony may rebadge a 57" LCD of their own if Samsung has the production capability for sharing but of course the Sony will cost more as is the usual scenario with the Sony rebadged Samsung panels. Keep the price drops coming.

Plasma prices are finally impacting the large size PDP's - anyone that followed the Japanese release of the 65" 1080P PDP last year can recall that Panasonic cut the previous gen 65" in half about two months before the debut of the 1080P model debut in Nov/Dec 2005 (in Japan) and then it (1080P) debuted for under $8,500 doing a Yen to Dollar conversion at the time. Now if we could only get more HD content for all these panels - in my area Comcast has added one new HD station in a year and that is pathetic - oh well that's for another thread so I guess we'll have to rely on a BD or HD DVD to get it ourselves. :)

[CMRVA]

The last two posts are spot on. Competition has fueled the drops. Prices should stabilize now for 6 months or so.

There is a difference between quality of the name brands versus the no-name brands. I work in the biz and have seen it with my own eyes at the factory level. Off brands buy panels from a number of sources, and quality control from one batch to the next could be different, plus big name factories will sell off their panels that don't pass the higher standards of the name brand quality control.

[trich]

There is a well known B&M store that has the 42px60u this week-end for just over 2k.

[GlennMaples]

I pretty strongly disagree with CMRVA, I don't see any stabilization for the next 6 months, unless you are comparing it to the further drops on black Friday. Example, it is now possible (if you pick your spots) to get the 50px60 for about the list of the 42px60.

By black Friday the 50" plasmas will be around $2000 (if you deal) and the off brands will be down to $1500.

Then, 1080p will drive the 720 plasmas down next year.

In summary, only more pressure every month, at least until some companies leave the segment.
Which will happen sometime in the following year.

[cajieboy]

I don't see the market very stable either. New factories are coming online later this year & in 2007 ramping up capacity. In the near future, I see a 3 tier pricing scheme with no-name off-brand flat panels being the cheapest, followed by the lower rez brand name 720p Plasmas, and falling in the most expensive category being 1080p Plasmas, LCD's, and possibly even SED (Q3 2007) from the top brand name mfg'ers.

[bigtvluvr]

[QUOTE=westa6969]If anyone needs to feel the pressure for a price cut it's Sharp as their large panels are priced outrageously I guess they have no competition in their 57", 65" LCD panels[/quote]

There's ALWYAS less pricing pressure in the bigger sizes, since there's less demand overall.

The question I would ask is: will the Sharp Acquos line in the 45" and under sizes start to approximate their peers in plasma and/or LCD ?

I know Acqos is a premium name (like Pioneer) but the premium for their sets in the 32 - 45" range was still too much, IMO. Either they knew what they were doing or Acqos acquired a nice niche demand and reputation; Sharp itself has never been a 'name' in any TV sets, at least not in the states (like Sony or Pioneer).

[bigtvluvr]

[QUOTE=trich]There is a well known B&M store that has the 42px60u this week-end for just over 2k.[/QUOTE]

Yes, all the upper-end (but not super top-end) 42's have fallen 20-25% in about 2-3 months time.....don't mention names or specific pricing or we'll get shut down.

[bigtvluvr]

their new 57" LCD with 1080P inputs very soon with an MSRP of $10K which is $5-$6K lower than the Sharp 57".

Just my point: before even the recent reductions, you could buy the Philips or Panasonic top-of-the-line plasmas for under $3K and their LCD's for about $3K (maybe a bit more) -- for the 42" size.

Most people would consider that price-range. So you had to have price competition.

But how many people are going to look at a $15,000 plasma from Sharp or even the $10,000 in the very large size? Most people looking at that size size are almost certainly gonna look at RPTV and save another 60-70%. The market for 55" and above flat-panels is very small for people who can afford to splurge $10K for a flat-screen.

I remember when the Philips 42" plasma came out in 1997 or 1998 -- I think it was $15,000 or so and you needed a bulky converter box or something. Then by 1999 or 2000 it was $10,000 but still most people couldn't afford it. Not till the thing got down to about $6K or so were people even CONSIDERING it (unless they were very wealthy).

[bigtvluvr]

Westa, what does "PDP" stand for ?????

[jumpy27]

[QUOTE=bigtvluvr]Westa, what does "PDP" stand for ?????[/QUOTE]

PDP = Plasma Display Panel

[pizzakid13]

i bought my sony 50 in LCD projection in oct. i really wanted the panny plasma 42 in but it was no less than 3 bills and too much for me. 7 months later, my sony breaks and the new panny plasma has dropped 700 bones. returned the sony to costco and got the panny online from CC cheaper than the price i paid in oct. love the tv.

[Bushman4]

ONLY PDP that will continue to go down are the current 480p/720p/1080i. These will continue to be made but in a lesser quantity than currently.


The new 1080P PDP will run high for a while. However it will be a long time before they come down to the current PDP prices if ever.

[tdavis21484]

With all the low cost suppliers who apparently either use slave labor or found a way to grow plasmas on trees, I agree that 720p panels will continue to fall until there's little market left to fight over. PDP manufacturers will have to rely on the 1080p models for future profitability. There will be less pressure to bring prices down, because they can say "if you can't afford it, just buy an inferior 720p set". Those who can afford them will buy the higher res panels, and the others will wind up as discounted models with low performing processors and scalers at BB and CC, and Wal-Mart, while the 1080p's will take the prime locations at the BBs and CCs and other retailers.

I like that pricing is coming down, I just wish it wouldn't come down at the expense of quality...dang Chinese manufacturers.

[iBleedGarnet]

Prices will continue to come down, IMO. Three 40" LCDs (2 Samsung, 1 Sony) can now be had for $2,000-$2,200. And they are SWEEEEEET lookin' sets!

When they hit $1,400-$1,600, I'll jump back* on board.




*Bought 40" XBR last October for about $3,200. After about two weeks, I couldn't stomach the fact that I had paid that much for a TV. If I hadn't paid cash, I might've felt differently. My wallet later thanked me.

[bigtvluvr]

[QUOTE=Bushman4]ONLY PDP that will continue to go down are the current 480p/720p/1080i. These will continue to be made but in a lesser quantity than currently. The new 1080P PDP will run high for a while. However it will be a long time before they come down to the current PDP prices if ever.[/QUOTE]

1080P will be priced where the other technologies are in as soon as 3 years and no longer than 5.

[kylebisme]

Yep, and there will surely be higher resolution plasmas by then as well.

[fasTLane]

However, price can be relative as some convert to cheaper assembly methods. Noticing Panasonic commercial sets are now assembled in Mexico and how those compare to Japanese product is a question yet to be settled.

[kylebisme]

Well if you want to be racist about it I suppose, otherwise it is just an issue of being built in a different factory. ;)

[fasTLane]

Which race?

[billybob_jcv]

Racism has nothing to do with it. What matters is the skill & experience of the mfg staff, their ability to implement the mfg processes, their ability to identify & resolve QA/QC issues, etc, etc.

Why go there? :rolleyes:

[fasTLane]

Exactly. I have personally had fewer problems with ANY product manufactured in Japan. I admire that level of pride in workmanship and have at times paid extra to get it.

[kylebisme]

Then I suppose it would be a nationalistic bias rather than a racial one. But my point is that what counts in the quality of the display is the ablities of the respective factories, not what "brand" of people work in them.

[fasTLane]

Whatever. YMMV

[VFR]

Every "made in Japan" Sony product I have owned has failed before it should have.I don't question Japans ability to turn out a good product but I do question Sonys ability. ;)

[cajieboy]

[QUOTE=VFR]Every "made in Japan" Sony product I have owned has failed before it should have.I don't question Japans ability to turn out a good product but I do question Sonys ability. ;)[/QUOTE]

Well don't ever go to Vegas because your luck is as bad as it gets!:D I've owned Sony Tubes, VCR's, Cameras, DVD Players, Laptop Vaio Computors, and a few other gizmos over the years....guess what Mr. Lucky...no major problems...nada. I would rate Sony reliability much better than normal, and these factual statistics bear out the truth from Consumer Reports Reliability Records.

[mlbrand]

So... getting back on topic :rolleyes:
Will this summer be one of the best times to get an excellent buy on these displays?

[wtr_wkr]

No. The best time will be after all the new manufacturing lines are rolling. That means Oct or a bit later. Big LCDs (~50") will be going from short supply to over supply.

[bigtvluvr]

[QUOTE=wtr_wkr]No. The best time will be after all the new manufacturing lines are rolling. That means Oct or a bit later. Big LCDs (~50") will be going from short supply to over supply.[/QUOTE]

I'm seeing a big price plunge in RPTV LCD's, so that should start to filter down to the plasmas once the new plasmas ramp up.

There's big discounting right now on the soon-to-be obsolete Panny and Philips models. If you can still find them in a few months, their price might be 1/2 of what the newer ones sell for.

[bigtvluvr]

[QUOTE=mlbrand]So... getting back on topic :rolleyes

Will this summer be one of the best times to get an excellent buy on these displays?[/QUOTE]

Summer will be a good time....you can ALWAYS wait a bit longer to save $$$.....there's good deals right now, better ones in 1-3 months, and probably even much better in 4-6 months.

But I see no qualitative revolution coming out or huge increase in production that would identify a particular month as a tipping point for a big price drop.

So if you're looking to buy and enjoy, may as well do it now ! :)

[GlennMaples]

Those of you who think that (even medium term) 1080p plasmas will keep thier current prices/margins are going to be surprised.

720p plasmas will tend to pull down the prices on 1080p. Consider everyone who is buying a 720 plasma now instead of 1080p LCDs. The markets are very intertwined.

LCDs prices are plummeting as well. SED? Laser rptv. All the competing technology will only survive if they can get the masses to buy. Which to me means eventual price points under $1000 and perhaps under $500.

I am very glad I am not in this market, in the end their will be one or two big first tier winners, several "commodity" suppliers, and many more companies who will lose their shirts.

[bigtvluvr]

[QUOTE=GlennMaples]Those of you who think that (even medium term) 1080p plasmas will keep thier current prices/margins are going to be surprised.[/quote]

New technlogies tend to have sticky pricing...look at Sony's SXRD (LCoS) technology and sets.

720p plasmas will tend to pull down the prices on 1080p. Consider everyone who is buying a 720 plasma now instead of 1080p LCDs. The markets are very intertwined.

Somewhat....but since production quantity on 1080P is limited out of the box and since the buyers for the newest technology tend to be price-insensitive, I don't see 720P impacting 1080P unless you see the 720's -- for similar technology and features, all else equal except the 720 vs. 1080 -- selling for a HUGE discount below the 1080's. Like 50% or more -- I think the Philips 9630's are selling close to 50% off where the new Philips sets will sell (I assume they're 1080P).

LCDs prices are plummeting as well.

Yes, but not as much as plasma. Newer technology with more limited production (in bigger sizes) is keeping the price sticky.

SED?

Don't know what it is and there aren't any sets out there I see.

Laser rptv.

Ditto.

All the competing technology will only survive if they can get the masses to buy. Which to me means eventual price points under $1000 and perhaps under $500.

I'd love to see that but that's probably 5-10 years away for a top-quality (but not necessarily best quality) 42" or 50".

Look at PC's. I bought my 1st PC in late 1999....bought a P3 700 mghtz with a nice 17" Sony flat screen (not flat panel, but the screen was flat, not curved) and a HP inkjet....cost about $3,000. New PC bought 2 years ago.....P4....2 ghtz....flat panel screen....deluxe inkjet printer that cost about 3X original...cost about $2,500. Today, I can buy dual-core PC's for $1,500 or so.

Pricing will come down but slowly....

I am very glad I am not in this market, in the end their will be one or two big first tier winners, several "commodity" suppliers, and many more companies who will lose their shirts.

The 1st tier winners -- like Dell -- can make you a fortune if you find them !!

[bigtvluvr]

[size=6]We never got a definitive response to what caused the PPP: was it the upcoming newer models from Philips and Panny? Was it 1080P plasma sets or 1080P non-plasma sets? New production from Samsung (nice 42" sets!)? New production from others? All of the above ?[/size]

[kylebisme]

It was smaller fonts that caused the plunge, please quit screwing this up for us.


;)

[bigtvluvr]

Actually, it was the LCD glut + the new Samung plasma which was priced about 15% below the Panasonic and Philips models.....so the newer Panny's and Philips have been priced accordingly.

Amazing...in a little over a year, you can get the newer model for almost 50% less ! :)

[tvbug]

[QUOTE=fasTLane]Exactly. I have personally had fewer problems with ANY product manufactured in Japan. I admire that level of pride in workmanship and have at times paid extra to get it.[/QUOTE]

I agree,

Whenever I buy a car I make it a point to see that it is made in Japan, easy because the VIN number starts with 'J' ;)

[bigtvluvr]

[QUOTE=tvbug]I agree...Whenever I buy a car I make it a point to see that it is made in Japan, easy because the VIN number starts with 'J' ;)[/QUOTE]

Most of this stuff is manufactured in cheap Asian countries, not the parents like Japan or Korea. Some is, and alot is assembled there, but most of the components and most assemblage is done in Mexico, Thailand, Singapore, Taiwan, China, Indonesia, Philippines, etc.

[Ironmike86]

http://i45.photobucket.com/albums/f98/ironmike86/DSC04447.jpg
Maybe thats why Pio's cost more? they pay there employee more than $0.75 an hour??

[Ironmike86]

[QUOTE=Cutwolf]People might be getting tired of having to wait hundreds of hours before they can take their new Ferrari over 50 mph.


*ducks*[/QUOTE]
I game right off the bad. My Pio has game mode. Even with the contrast down the PQ kills my LCD. No IR. I just don't pause my games and leave the room. I game 10hr+ sometimes when theres nothing to do but drink beer and game. 2months no problems. I've probally gamed more than watch movies or tv.